Voting begins September 22nd
Early voting will begin in several states on September 22nd. This is particularly aimed at those voters who will be unable to make it to the polls in November, especially those in the military. But over the last several election cycles early voting has become more and more popular. Estimates are that 14% of voters nationwide cast early ballots in 2002. This year expectations are that early mail-in ballots could account for 30% of the votes cast. This means that both presidential camps are particularly aware that they have no time to waste in terms of defining their opponents. Although Election Day is 95 days away, for some voters it’s only a matter of 53 days.

The Veep Search
The big question in Washington right now is whether Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine is really still on the short list for Obama’s vice president picks or whether this week’s media buzz was all an elaborate ruse to throw everyone off the track of the real candidate. Opinion is split between those that believe Kaine is still a frontrunner (along with Sens. Joe Biden and Evan Bayh and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius) and those that think it will be one of the others.
Perhaps the only thing known for sure is who won’t be on either ticket. On the Democratic side it’s become crystal clear that Sen. Clinton will not be Obama’s running mate. Her high-profile role on the second night of the Democratic convention is being read as a sure sign that she is out of the mix.
And while John McCain still debates his short list of possibilities (former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former U.S. Rep. and Budget Director Rob Portman), it’s looking like the campaign will not be going for former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge.
Although Ridge is said to be close to McCain on a personal level, it’s believed that his pro-choice record on abortion would enrage the conservative social-issue base of the GOP that the campaign will need to turn out voters in November. This is particularly troubling to some GOP operatives who note that Pennsylvania will be among a handful of battleground states this fall. And the latest polling out of the Keystone state, by a GOP pollster, has Obama leading McCain there, 49% to 40%.
As to McCain’s remaining choices, it’s curious that Romney made a rather direct statement earlier this week that he will not be McCain’s running mate. Insiders are saying that he’s still in the mix.

Political Observations of the Week:
“Neither campaign has made the sale. The battle is the independent vote, and they don’t make up their minds until late.”
Ed Rollins, veteran GOP political consultant, on the presidential race.

“The problem for Republicans is they’re pessimistic, and when you’re pessimistic you don’t work as hard, you don’t turn out the vote.”
Former U.S. Rep. Vin Weber (R., Minnesota), on the challenge facing John McCain.

“If a running mate is in the national news the last two weeks of the campaign, it will be because a grievous error has been committed.”
Ken Khachigian, former senior adviser to President Ronald Reagan.

“Why surrender that shot of presumably favorable coverage when you are running close, or in some polls, ahead? And let’s face it, why is anyone going to pay any attention to the Republican convention otherwise?”
Richard Norton Smith, presidential historian, George Mason University, suggesting McCain will wait to announce his running mate.

“I think the campaign does have to be careful about its tone. A pure attack tone could be perilous.”
Veteran GOP consultant Mike Murphy, on the McCain ads.

“Republicans are in desperate need of new, fresh ideas and faces. [Sen. Ted] Stevens should resign immediately. The only thing he does by staying in is continue to damage his party.”
Anonymous GOP strategist, on the Alaskan Republican Senator.

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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.

The Numbers Game
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Barack Obama retaining a six-point lead over John McCain, 47%-41%. However, the poll also shows that respondents could better “identify with the background and values” of McCain than Obama, by 58% to 47%, suggesting that the Democrat has a ways to go to raise the publics’ “comfort level.”
Also this week the Quinnipiac University survey of “Battleground States” finds Obama with tight leads in Michigan (46%-42%) and Minnesota (46%-44%) and McCain taking a similar tight lead in Colorado (46%-42%). Just last month the Democrat had led in Colorado, 49% to 44%. The only significant margin this month was in Wisconsin, where Obama leads 50% to 39%.
In all, this remains a very tight contest in most key states.

And the hits just keep coming….
As several media reports have mentioned, Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention in Denver will fall on the 45th anniversary of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s historic “I Have a Dream” speech.
In contrast, because the GOP convention is so late this year (not starting until September 1st), McCain’s acceptance speech occurs on September 4th. Which means the Republican will have to compete with NFL fans. That’s opening night of football season, with the Washington Redskins taking on the New York Giants.

Political Observations of the Week:
“At this rate, it’s only a matter of days before he opens his presidential library.”
Alex Conant, Republican National Committee spokesman, delivering a good line, but also showing GOP frustrations with the world tour press attention devoted to Sen. Barack Obama this week.

“They wouldn’t be the first running mates in the history of American politics to have said tough things about each other.”
Dan Schnur, GOP consultant, on the possibility of McCain picking Mitt Romney as his running mate.

“It looks like after months of hanging together with their leaders, they’re beginning to have an every-man-for-himself attitude.”
Jim Manley, a senior Democratic Senate aide, on the changing attitudes of GOP Senators.

“It’s not whether he wins or loses the issue nationally, it’s whether he wins it in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.”
Neil Newhouse, veteran GOP pollster, on McCain and “the economy.”
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.

Political Observations of the Week:
“I think Speaker Pelosi is walking her Blue Dogs and other vulnerable Democrats off a cliff, and they know it.”
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), on Pelosi’s opposition to offshore drilling.

“We’re carrion birds. We’re sitting up there saying ‘Does he seem weak? Is he dehydrated yet? Let’s attack.’”
“The Daily Show’s” Jon Stewart, on the relationship between late night comedians and presidential candidates.

“To be elected to Congress you either have to be wealthy or know a lot of wealthy people.”
Massie Ritsch, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics.

“A lot of Republicans believe McCain will end up serving only one term if he’s elected. If he serves one term, that means if you’re VP, you are the choice in four years. Republicans almost always nominate the next person in line. Democrats don’t always do so.”
Larry Sabato, political scientist, University of Virginia.

“He has no overlying theme; he has given no compelling reason to vote for him. Voters respond to a short message that sticks: ‘Morning in America,’ ‘It’s the economy stupid.’ If he does not come up with a compelling reason, he will be looking at a 60-40 loss.”
David Johnson, co-founder of the public relations firm Strategic Vision and a veteran of Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign, on Sen. John McCain.

“There’s at least an argument to be made that a Democrat who doesn’t sound too much like a traditional East Coast liberal – a label Obama has been working hard to disown in these weeks prior to the convention – has a shot at one or more of the traditionally Republican Western states.”
David Birdsell, Baruch College School of Public Affairs.

“This moment only reinforces that we have to let the younger guys take the lead in politics, that they know the issues of today, that we live in a far different world than 20 years ago.”
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis, on the flap over Jesse Jackson’s criticisms of Sen. Barack Obama.