What the “Stimulus” fight has taught Washington
In the place of lofty political rhetoric of years past that once suggested a rising tide would lift all boats, the basic rule of American politics today is that at the end of every battle, whether it be electoral or legislative, there are winners and there are losers. So as the fight over the “stimulus” package enters its final days, there’s no surprise that we find the Washington establishment with score cards in hand, busily assigning grades to all the players.
While it’s foolish to extrapolate too broadly from the events of the last three weeks, it does appear that some fundamental markers have been set down that may offer us all some insight into what to expect from Washington over the next six months.
First, the economy trumps every other issue. Even this week’s uptick in violence in Afghanistan has practically gone unnoticed as Congress and the White House have focused solely on either the stimulus fight or the bank bailout efforts. All else is naught. And given economic projections, it’s hard to see anything but a catastrophic event diverting Washington’s eyes from the number one issue.
Second, the opportunity for bipartisanship has come and gone. With all 177 House Republicans standing opposed to the stimulus, it’s obvious that the GOP has made a strategic decision to construct its new image as the opposition party. If the party could not be persuaded to go along with the basic tenets of the stimulus effort, what’s the likelihood that they will show any less resolve when it comes to really divisive issues like health care reform? The only issue that appears to unite both parties right now is bashing Wall Street CEOs.
Third, while three GOP Senate moderates did play a major role in crafting the Senate version of the stimulus package, it’s a bit of a stretch to expect all three – Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins and Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter – to always be there when President Obama needs them. Perhaps they will. But suggestions that they (along with a handful of conservative Democrats) constitute the basis of a “centrist bloc” that will mediate all future disputes, is probably wishful thinking.
Fourth, the real tension right now in Congress is not between Republicans and Democrats but between House Democrats and Senate Democrats. Expect every other big piece of legislation coming this year to go through the same dance as the stimulus bill, with House Democrats overreaching and Senate Democrats having to modify their efforts. It has everything to do with the different dynamics of the two chambers and the meaning of being the “majority party” in each.
Finally, if the stimulus fight proved anything, it’s that President Obama functions much better in campaign mode versus West Wing mode. That will undoubtedly change as his team gets a better hold on communications strategy. After the GOP minority dominated the airwaves during the first two weeks of the battle, the president had to go back outside the Beltway to take control of the message. Given the demands of the 24-hour news cycle, we may have finally entered the age of the permanent presidential campaign.
The shape of things to come
With all eyes on the stimulus debate and House members grilling Wall Street CEOs this week, the testimony of the Deputy Director of the FBI before the Senate Judiciary Committee went little noticed outside those in attendance but his report could have far-reaching effects in the months to come.
He advised the Committee that the Bureau currently was running 530 investigations into corporate fraud, including cases that involve 38 of the largest financial firms in the country. Further, he projected that the number of firms under the microscope would rise into the hundreds and that many of the cases were directly related to the economic collapse at the heart of the current crisis.
The mother of all reform plans
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D., North Dakota) is contemplating the idea of a federal task force made up of House and Senate members and Obama Administration officials to be charged with developing one master reform plan that would coordinate efforts to redesign Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the tax code.
In Conrad’s vision, the recommendations of the task force would be put up to a simple “yea” or “nay” vote in both chambers, with no amendments allowed. Needless to say, most committee chairs and the Speaker of the House are opposed to such a move, arguing that the respective committees should be allowed to create their own reform plans.
Political Observations of the Week:
“It takes two to tango, and the Republicans aren’t dancing.”
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., New York)
“When you took taxpayer money you moved into a fishbowl.”
Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D., Pennsylvania) speaking to the banking CEOs appearing before the House Financial Services Committee.
“America doesn’t trust you anymore.”
Rep. Michael Capuano (D., Massachusetts), confronting the banking CEOs.
“This is the electoral version of all-in, for both the Democrats and Republicans. If these policies are a success, the Democrats are going to own it, and only they will own it. And the reverse is true as well.”
Rep. Anthony Weiner (D., New York), on the stimulus bill.
“The House guys complain that you [in the Obama Administration] are rolling us. We’re not rolling anyone. We’re looking to get 60 votes.”
Vice President Joe Biden, on the Senate version of the stimulus bill.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
