Inside Washington for November 7th
The 2008 Election earthquake has just begun
In the wake of Tuesday’s election results, the depth and breadth of change heading for Washington, D.C., and the federal government, is going to be breathtaking to behold.
The Obama victory, coupled with Democratic pickups of Senate and House seats, already has political analysts drawing comparisons with the 1964 Johnson Administration in the sense that this will be an activist White House dealing with a strong Democratic-majority Congress. That dynamic in itself will likely reveal the potential strengths and weaknesses of an Obama Administration’s legislative agenda. On the one hand they have the votes and a Congressional leadership eager to address the long list of crises facing the nation. On the other hand, this Democratic White House, like the Carter and Clinton Administrations before it, must walk the tightrope balancing its own political interests against those on the Hill who must face the voters again in 2010.
While the transition is just hours old, we already have some hints that the new administration is not about to suffer fools when it comes to Congress. Its first appointment, that of Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel to be the new president’s Chief of Staff, suggests that the new president realizes the importance of a right hand personage who will not only “have his back” with the Congressional leadership, but more importantly, someone whose reputation as a tough-as-nails political infighter is itself intimidating to many in his party. Crossing both of them could prove fatal.
Further, this week’s emergency meeting of the new president’s economic advisors includes the likes of Paul Volcker, Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Convening this troika (the former head of the Federal Reserve and two former Clinton-era Treasury Secretaries) of experienced pragmatists should not only encourage the markets, it’s also an early warning sign from the new White House that it understands that unless the economic crisis is stabilized, all legislative agendas, from either side of Pennsylvania Avenue, will be constrained or unrealized.
The weight of the Democratic landslide will give the new president a grace period but the realities of the new media culture has probably erased forever the concept of a presidential “honeymoon” or a “first 100 days” grace period. The new White House will have the advantage of facing a GOP decimated by two consecutive election cycles. The Republicans are not only leaderless, retirements and lost seats have robbed the party of several decades’ worth of well-known and experienced House and Senate voices. While the party sorts out a new vision and devises a strategy to prepare for the 2010 elections, the “loyal opposition” is more likely to come in the loud voices of conservative talk radio hosts and Internet bloggers.
Along with the cable nets and the 24-hour news cycle, they will all be waiting to pounce on the new administration’s first sign of weakness or the first drop in the new president’s approval ratings. Despite all the “change” headed this way, that dynamic is one constant of the modern Capital City.
The new numbers
The House: In 1994, the GOP gained control of the House of Representatives with a 54-seat gain in what was widely defined as a “tidal wave” election. Now after two consecutive cycles that have seen major Democratic gains in seats, any evidence of that tidal wave is long gone. After picking up 30 seats in 2006, Democrats on Tuesday took control of at least 19 more GOP seats. The results in five other GOP House districts (California 4th, Maryland 1st, Ohio 15th, Virginia 5th and Washington 8th) are still not confirmed. But as of today, Democrats will convene the 111th Congress in January with at least 254 House seats.
The Senate: As of today, Democrats have picked up six GOP Senate seats this week. They include New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Oregon. The Senate contest in Georgia appears headed for a runoff election on December 2nd. The contests in Alaska and Minnesota are likely headed for recounts. The current count puts Democrats at 57 Senate seats, which includes the two Independent seats that caucus with the Democrats. The big question now, aside from what happens in Georgia, Minnesota or Alaska, is whether Sen. Joe Lieberman, having supported Sen. McCain, will continue to caucus with the Democrats.
The Governors: Democrats picked up the Missouri governorship to put the new party-control ratio at 29 Democratic governorships versus 21 for the GOP.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Obama’s election means a new political alignment as fundamental as the realignment from conservative to liberal in 1932 and from liberal to conservative in 1980, with roots back to 1968. But this realignment is from conservative to something new – a mix of social liberalism, fiscal conservatism, and cultural moderation.”
Lanny Davis, Democratic strategist
“Early voting mattered and mattered big – just look at Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia to name just a few states.”
Tony Fabrizio, GOP pollster
“Ten years of asking people to do things they don’t want to do is a long time.”
Rep. Roy Blunt (R., Missouri), announcing that he will not run for reelection to his post as House GOP Whip.
“I think this is the end of the conservative era.”
Pat Buchanan
“I would suggest that conservatives need to do the math of the new demographics of the United States. We can’t be anti-Hispanic, anti-young person, anti-many things and be surprised when we don’t win elections.”
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.