Inside Washington for November 3rd
2008 Election Night Quick Guide
There will be some early clues Tuesday evening as to whether the presidential race may be over fairly quickly or whether we are in for a very long night.
At 6 p.m., the polls close in Indiana. Cable news outlets will have the early returns within minutes and we’ll know if Sen. Barack Obama is leading in this “red” state. If so, that would be a troubling indicator for the campaign of Sen. John McCain.
That hour will also see the polls close in Kentucky. The big question there is what’s the early margin in the U.S. Senate race, where the Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R) is seeking a fifth term. Early betting is that this race will go down to the wire.
Next up at 7 p.m., the polls will close in Florida and Virginia. Signs of a big Obama lead in either will be big trouble for the McCain camp. However, if we see tight margins in both, Republicans will read that as a very positive sign that the late undecided vote has broken their way. If McCain shows a big early lead in Florida, put on a pot of coffee for a long night.
By 7:30 p.m., polls in North Carolina and Ohio close. Ohio is critical for McCain and analysts will be looking at traditional Democratic counties for signs that old-school Democrats from the industrial Midwest may have moved toward McCain.
In North Carolina, pay special attention to the Senate race where GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole is struggling to keep her seat. At the presidential level, if Obama shows early signs of strength here, it’s another bad sign for McCain.
At 8 p.m. returns begin to come in from Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Both states are keys to a GOP presidential victory. The big question in Pennsylvania is whether the Reagan Democrats in the state’s Northeast corner have gone for McCain in a big way. Unfortunately for viewers, ballot results from that neck of the state are traditionally late in being reported. However, Obama fans can feel pretty good if results from the Philadelphia suburbs show a huge Democratic tide. If so, a big number of new voters for Obama could offset GOP hopes in the Northeast part of the state.
The New Hampshire Senate race, where freshman GOP Sen. John Sununu is running an uphill fight for reelection may also tell the tale about Democratic hopes for big Senate gains.
By 9 p.m., television networks should begin calling the big states – Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida – for either Obama or McCain. Unless, that is, the margins are still very close. If that’s the case, it’s likely to be a very long night as attention shifts to the West and the outcomes in states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
As for the question of whether Democrats can reach the 60-seat target in the Senate, that probably won’t be revealed until very late in the night when we learn about the fate of Alaskan GOP Sen. Ted Stevens, who continues to fight for reelection despite his recent court conviction.
Whatever the outcome of the presidential race, this year will be one for the record books in terms of voter participation. Since last week, more than 13 million votes had already been cast in the 30 states that allow early voting. And long lines of voters continued to appear in several southern states this weekend. Estimates are now that turnout will definitely break the 60.6% level reached in 2004 and may break the all time high record of 65% turnout set in 1960.
Final Electoral College Vote Projections:
Realclearpolitics.com: Obama 353/McCain 185
Rothenberg Political Report: Obama 353/McCain 159
Cook Political Report: Obama 286/McCain 139
Politico.com: Obama 353/McCain 185
Total needed to win the presidency: 270 votes.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Man, I’ve seen headwinds. I’ve never seen headwinds like these.”
Anonymous senior McCain camp aide.
“This could be the election that creates Karl Rove’s fundamental realignment – for the Democrats, unfortunately.”
Anonymous senior GOP strategist.
“They may need an inside straight, but sometimes people pull an inside straight, so we need to be vigilant.”
Obama Campaign Manager David Axelrod, on the GOP
“Turnout is going to go through the roof….I now believe turnout will begin to approach levels not seen since other comparable presidential campaigns in 1960 and 1968. In today’s terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!”
McCain pollster Bill McInturff
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.