Inside Washington for October 28th
Seven long days…..
With one week left until Election Day, let’s review where things stand.
In the presidential race, Sen. Barack Obama continues to show a significant lead over Sen. John McCain, not just in national polling but in statewide polling in the critical “battleground” states. The most current Electoral College vote projections made by veteran independent observers are as follows:
Electoral College Vote Projections:
Realclearpolitics.com: Obama 306/McCain 157
Rothenberg Political Report: Obama 286/McCain 163
Cook Political Report: Obama 286/McCain 158
Politico.com: Obama 375/McCain 163
Total needed to win the presidency: 270 votes.
As you can see, all four sources already project Obama with more than the needed 270 votes.
• In order to win the presidency, McCain must win Ohio and Florida or one of those states plus Pennsylvania. That is assuming that he holds all the “red” states won by President Bush in 2004. And that’s the problem. Obama appears very likely to win several of the Bush states, including Colorado and Virginia. If that occurs, it upsets the equation the McCain camp needs for victory.
• With one week to go, the McCain camp has once again changed its stump message, now arguing that an Obama victory, coupled with a possible 60+ Democratic Senate and an increased Democratic majority in the House would be “a dangerous threesome.” This message change comes in the face of numerous GOP veteran campaign operatives who are all arguing that the McCain camp stay fixed solely on the issue of the economy in the closing week.
• Gov. Sarah Palin spent much of the weekend denying that she had anything to do with the Republican National Committee purchasing designer clothing for her to wear on the campaign trail. Again, any time the campaign is not talking about their differences with Obama on taxes and the economy is time wasted.
• Obama makes his prime time address, which his campaign is calling a “closing message” on Wednesday night in a 30-minute “roadblock,” meaning it will play on all four major networks simultaneously.
• While nothing is impossible, a McCain victory at this point would be one for the record books. Although some in the McCain camp point to Ronald Reagan’s “come from behind” win over President Jimmy Carter in 1980, it’s worth remembering the circumstances that led to that turnaround. First of all, the 1980 race was very tight for the last two weeks prior to Election Day, with most polls showing Carter leading by at most three percentage points on average. The second Presidential debate of the race was held very late, on October 29, just seven days prior to Election Day. And it was in his closing arguments that Reagan asked the famous question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” That event gave the Reagan camp the momentum it needed to turn the race upside down and saw the Republican win 44 states and 489 electoral votes. This year, with no “set piece” such as a debate, scheduled between now and next Tuesday, it’s hard to see the circumstances where McCain can so radically turn the contest’s momentum on its head. Remember, unlike 28 years ago, for the most part, the national polling margin for this race over the last week has ranged from nine to 10 or more points, hardly the close three-point margin of the 1980 electoral climate.
The Senate:
With the news that a jury has found Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens guilty of multiple counts of not reporting hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts, Democrats can probably add that Senate race to their column. That means that Democrats are now heavily favored to pick up six Senate seats – Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Virginia and New Hampshire. They are also leading in two others – North Carolina and Minnesota. If they all go to the Democrats, that means a gain of eight seats.
Also in play are three more GOP seats, those in Georgia, Kentucky and Mississippi. Given this scenario, it’s not hard foreseeing the possibility of a 60-seat, filibuster-proof Democratic Senate.
The House:
Most projections continue to see a Democratic gain of between 20 and 30 House seats next week. Although, there are a couple of internal GOP documents in circulation that suggest a worst case scenario in which the party loses 40 or more seats.
Whatever the final total, what is significant, and history making, is that one party, the GOP, will follow up on a double-digit seat loss in 2006, with a consecutive double-digit loss of seats in the very next election cycle.
If all the projections do come to pass, the GOP will be in for a very long and traumatic period of rebuilding their party.
Political Observations of the Week:
“The cake is baked. We’re entering the finger-pointing and positioning-for-history part of the campaign. It’s every man for himself now.”
Anonymous former McCain strategist.
“If he wins, he’s going to have a personal following he can use to press his agenda. He can use these millions to reach over the heads of the Washington insiders, the Democrats on the Hill. It could be powerful.”
Will Marshall of the Democratic Leadership Institute, on the possible future impact of the estimated 7 million volunteers, contributors, MySpace and Facebook contacts and official campaign website contacts that the Obama campaign has amassed in cyberspace over the last two years.
“Republicans are still hung over from 2006, and they’re about to get kicked in the gut again.”
David Wasserman, who follows House races for the Cook Report.
“There is not a safe Republican seat in the country. I don’t mean that we’re going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them.”
A senior Republican House member.
“Whether or not the Democrats have 60 [Senate seats] is something that is going to be a very significant factor in the way the country is governed.”
Presidential historian Robert A. Caro
“We’re fighting for our lives in every race.”
Senior House GOP strategist.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.