McCain, Obama both target Wall Street
Modern presidential politics is accustomed to campaigning amidst weak economies, recessions, high unemployment and rising inflation but this presidential campaign, already replete with numerous “firsts,” now adds “first to take place in the midst of an historic financial crisis” to its roster.
This weekend’s failed efforts to somehow avert the crash of both Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, has suddenly made “Wall Street” the target of both the McCain and Obama campaigns. While neither gave any specifics of how their respective administrations would right the country’s financial ship, both alluded to more federal “oversight” of the U.S. financial system.
On the stump Monday morning, McCain running mate Gov. Sarah Palin told a Denver audience, “We’re going to stop golden parachutes to CEOs who break the public trust,” adding, “this will be a priority of our administration.” Sen. John McCain, campaigning in New Jersey, said that there was an urgent need to “overhaul regulatory oversight in Washington” in order to “bring transparency and accountability to Wall Street.”
Meanwhile, Sen. Barack Obama, speaking in Colorado, called this the “most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression” and blamed eight years of Bush Administration policies that have “loosened oversight and regulation” of Wall Street.
While campaign stump speeches do not always foretell future policy, it is interesting to note that, just 48 hours after the current administration refused to bail out either of the investment banks, both presidential campaigns have sent a strong signal that they will hold an even harder line with the financial industry come January.
With the first presidential debate now just 10 days away, there’s no doubt that questions about the financial crisis will be front and center on the night’s agenda. This means that both camps had best come armed with answers and their plans to “fix things.” Given the “crisis” atmosphere that will play out between now and then in the markets, any lack of specifics is likely to earn either candidate a loss for their first head-to-head encounter.
Random tidbits from the campaign trail….
* In his first campaign appearance without Gov. Sarah Palin at his side, Sen. John McCain addressed a New Jersey crowd of just 3,000 on Monday in an arena with 16,000 seats.
* The Democratic National Committee has just $17.5 million dollars in “cash on hand” as of today. The Committee spent $28 million during the month of August. In contrast, the Republican National Committee has an estimated $110 million available. Under Federal Election Commission rules, the money from both national committees can be used to aid their respective presidential candidates but there are constraints on how those funds can be used for advertising. Instead, those moneys will be used mostly in terms of supporting “field efforts” on the states, i.e., setting up get-out-the-vote operations.
* According to the latest estimates, early voting by mail will probably account for one third of all the votes cast in this year’s presidential election, up from 20% in 2004. Early voting begins in some states before the end of this month. Voting begins in the key battleground state of Ohio on September 30th.
* We are now just 49 days from Election Day. This year’s general election campaign, beginning after the conclusion of both party conventions, was just 60 days in length, compared with 81 days in the 2000 election.
Democrats still expecting to gain Senate seats
Despite the tightening of the presidential race, all signs continue to suggest that Democrats will pick up at least five U.S. Senate seats in November, and perhaps more.
Independents campaign handicappers see almost certain Democratic gains coming in New Mexico and Virginia and likely gains in Alaska, New Hampshire and Colorado. Those are the five seats that everyone now assumes will be Democratic “pick-up” seats this year. In addition, there are potential Democratic upsets brewing in four other states: North Carolina, Oregon, Minnesota and Mississippi.
Interestingly, recent polling in Alaska, New Mexico and North Carolina shows a discrepancy between the presidential race and the U.S. Senate contests. In each, Sen. John McCain is leading Sen. Barack Obama while the Democratic Senate candidates are all leading their Republican opponents. In Alaska and North Carolina, Democratic challengers have raised real doubts about GOP incumbents while in the open seat race in New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Tom Udall, the Senate contender, has a significant advantage in being the better-known of the two candidates.
The only Democratic seat that was in question this cycle was that of Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. It is now seen as a likely Democratic retention.
Political Observations of the Week:
“People don’t give money if they think you are going to lose.”
Phil Nobile, Democratic pollster, suggesting that the money both campaign’s collected during August [$66 million for Obama, $47 million for McCain] attests to the closeness of the race.
“The Obama people need to reboot and figure out ways to make the McCain-Bush argument newsworthy again.”
Phil Singer, former press secretary of the Hillary Clinton presidential effort.
“McCain had a successful summer in that he did two things: He framed the race that Obama wants to raise your taxes, and Obama doesn’t want to do anything about energy consumption. Then he picked Palin, and now he’s in the race.”
Scott Reed, veteran GOP strategist.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
