Inside Washington for August 22nd
Will there be a post-convention bounce?
The national public opinion polls on the presidential race have tightened considerably. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has the race with just a three-point spread, with Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain 45%-42%.
Similarly, the L.A. Times/Bloomberg News survey has Obama leading 45% to 43% for McCain. That same spread is found in the latest Gallup Poll. And a Quinnipiac survey has Obama leading 47% to 42%.
However, the Reuters/Zogby survey has McCain in the lead 46% to 41%, a significant change from last month’s Zogby poll which had Obama leading by 7 points!
What to make of all this? These numbers for the most part show either candidate leading within the margin of error of the surveys’ statistical parameters. What’s more, neither presidential contender is breaking the magical 50% mark. Taking all these surveys at the macro level, this remains a dead-heat race.
But, if history is any guide, a week from now Obama should be showing a significant lead in all the national polls due to what’s expected to be a successful week-long convention period. That is, unless, of course, something goes wrong.
And what could possibly go wrong? Well, for starters, this weekend Obama reveals the identity of his running mate. Since it’s unlikely to be Sen. Hillary Clinton, the Obama organization has to hope that it’s not a choice that in any way will reopen that sore wound. Especially since the Clinton supporters will be allowed a roll-call vote on the presidential nomination in Denver to give voice to their frustrations.
Second, Sen. McCain’s vice presidential announcement is planned for Friday the 29th, immediately following Thursday night’s Obama acceptance speech. If it proves to be a choice out of left field, media attention could shift immediately and step all over the wake of excitement coming out of Denver.
Third, with tensions ratcheting up with the Russians over Georgia and now affecting relations in the Middle East (i.e. Russia’s planned arms deal with Syria), there’s always the possibility that world events could overtake domestic politics.
And, what happens the following week is anybody’s guess. We have never had both party conventions scheduled within days of each other and never so late in the year. Traditionally, Labor Day marks the start of the fall general election campaign but this year Labor Day will be the first day of the Republican convention in Minneapolis.
And that means that, come September 8th, we’re likely to be right back where we started – in the middle of a dead-heat presidential race with, at that point, only 57 days to go.
Why this presidential campaign will be different
As political analyst Stu Rothenberg pointed out in a recent column in Roll Call, this year’s presidential race – already “different” because it features two sitting U.S. Senators, the oldest major-party presidential nominee, and the first African-American major-party nominee – will really stand out during the fall months because it will be the most expensive campaign ever waged.
The Republican National Committee and its House and Senate counterparts are sitting on at least $101.7 million in cash. Their Democratic counterparts have amassed $105.3 million, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leading that group with $54.6 million in cash on hand.
Then there’s the $84 million the McCain camp stands to receive for the general election through federal matching funds. And the Obama camp, which opted out of the matching funds system, is expected to have more than $200 million to spend on the last two moths of the contest.
Add it all up and that spells the biggest paid-media assault on voters in American history.
Political Observations of the Week:
“The country wants a Democratic president – they’re not sure they want this Democrat. Look what’s happened in the last six to eight weeks – six to eight weeks ago, the question wasn’t whether Obama would win, but by how much.”
Peter Brown, Assistant Director for Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“If he picks a pro-choice running mate, it’s not going to be pretty….[He would have] effectively destroyed the Republican Party and pushed the conservative movement into the bleachers.”
Rush Limbaugh, on McCain’s “veep” choice.
“Lieberman would blow things up. That would be like Obama picking some right-ringer that agrees with him on one thing.”
David Keene, American Conservative Union, on the possibility of McCain choosing Sen. Joe Lieberman as his running mate.
“In stead of giving big speeches at big stadiums, he needs to give straight-up 10-word answers to people at Wal-Mart about how he would improve their lives.”
Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), on Sen. Obama.
“People in the business world just assume that someone out there is waiting to knock their block off. But with politicians, it almost seems like a lot of them kind of believe their own hype. They forget to duck.”
All Tortorella, public relations/corporate crisis management expert.
_____________________________________________
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.