Inside Washington For August 15th
Too soon to tell
With the U.S. and Russia appearing to stand at the brink of a new Cold War over the invasion of Georgia, political strategists in both parties are casting a wary glance at how its ramifications could upset their already mapped out plans for the last 81 days of the presidential race. But any lasting impact on the race still remains unclear at this point.
For one thing, thus far the story has had to compete with the opening of the Olympic Games and the media frenzy over the exposure of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ extramarital affair. And it also comes at a time when many American families are away on their final vacations as the summer comes to a close.
The conventional wisdom in both Democratic and GOP camps has been the assumption that any international crisis could play to Sen. John McCain’s advantage, and there’s little doubt his campaign will use the message of his foreign policy experience in a time of crisis in television spots this fall.
It has been some time since the two superpowers were at odds with each other and engaged in such terse public exchanges. If this problem is not settled by Labor Day (in terms of a cease-fire agreement and/or a Russian withdrawal), it’s possible that it could overshadow the final months of the campaign.
But it’s already clear that it could play to the advantage of either party. Some Republican voices have already criticized the tone of McCain’s pro-Georgia rhetoric while others suggest that if this crisis is presented as a failure on the part of the Bush Administration to act precipitously, it will be used by many to play to images of their other debacles, particularly their slow response to Hurricane Katrina (which also hit in August).
A Democratic National Convention Primer
With the just-released tentative schedule for the Democrats’ four day convention in Denver (August 25th-28th) in hand, several things are immediately apparent as to what messages the Obama campaign is orchestrating.
First, the prime-time speaking schedules are top-heavy with presentations from Democratic governors. On Tuesday night, America will hear from the governors of Arizona, Kansas, Massachusetts, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with the host-governor of Colorado speaking on Thursday night. The list not only sends the message that these are the “new faces” of the party, but that Democrats are looking outside of Washington to tell their party’s stories.
Also speaking on Tuesday will be Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, an early supporter of Obama who campaigned tirelessly in a failed attempt to help him win the Keystone state’s primary this spring.
At the 1992 Convention, Casey’s father, then the Governor of Pennsylvania, was denied a speaking role at the convention because of his anti-abortion stance. Sen. Casey is also anti-abortion and his inclusion as a key speaker sends a message not only to Catholic voters but also to Evangelical voters that times have changed at the Democratic Party. [Polling shows that a significant percentage of voters describing themselves as Evangelicals are leaning toward voting for Obama. Were the Senator to take just a small percentage of that voting bloc in several southern states it could make a big difference in November.]
Also speaking on Tuesday will be former Virginia Gov. and now U.S. Senate candidate Mark Warner, delivering what’s described as a “keynote” address, scheduled just prior to Tuesday night’s big speech by Sen. Hillary Clinton. Many Democrats are already suggesting that Warner (who has a huge lead in the Virginia race) could well be a future presidential candidate himself. And it also helps Obama in that he comes from a state that has been trending Democratic at the state level and could prove to be a decisive battleground state in November.
With the eventual Vice Presidential nominee’s speech scheduled for Wednesday, and former President Bill Clinton also slated for that night, much speculation is now swirling around Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joe Biden of Delaware. They are still said to be on the short list of “veep” picks and both are also penciled in to speak that night.
Thursday night of course, is reserved for Obama’s acceptance speech, which will move outdoors to the Mile High football stadium and takes place on the anniversary of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech.
Political Observations of the Week:
“In six of the last seven elections, he who was ahead on Labor Day won. If Barack Obama comes out after the [Sept. 1-4] Republican convention statistically tied with McCain, he’ll be 15 points behind where a generic Democrat should be this year.”
Doug Schoen, Democratic strategist.
“The dominant issue in this election is what you broadly call pocketbook and the economy, and both candidates for some reason don’t have a voice on it and they don’t seem comfortable. They talk about it and move off of it quickly…The first one to get a voice on it will have an advantage.”
Matthew Dowd, chief political strategist for Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign.
“Nobody likes a funeral.”
Anonymous Senate GOP press secretary, explaining why so few House and Senate Republicans are planning to attend the GOP Convention in St. Paul.
“You are laying the foundation for the debate for the fall. Even if people don’t pay enough attention to say, ‘I’m changing my vote,’ or ‘I’m making up my mind,’ they do absorb the information.”
McCain campaign senior adviser Charlie Black, explaining the campaign’s series of ad attacks on Obama over the last two weeks.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.