Inside Washington for August 1st
Presidential politics and the “Dog Days” of summer
There will be no summer vacation for fans of American politics this month as August is just brimming with political events.
By month’s end both presidential candidates will have celebrated birthdays, with Barack Obama turning 47 on the 4th and John McCain turning 72 on the 29th.
The Olympics kicks off August 8th in China but the Obama camp has plans to spend more than $5 million on prime-time television ads during the course of the two-week-long event.
McCain and Obama will be on the same stage together for the first time on August 16th in Lake Forest, California, as the two participate in a forum on “Compassion & Leadership” at the Saddleback Church, moderated by Pastor Rick Warren, leading evangelical minister and author of “The Purpose Driven Life.”
The Democratic National Convention convenes on September 25th. Sen. Hillary Clinton gives a major prime-time speech on the second night of the convention and Obama will accept his party’s nomination on the night of the 28th.
And with the McCain camp suggesting it will announce his running mate’s identity just prior to the Republican National Convention’s September 1st kick-off, it’s safe to say that before the month is up we will know both party’s vice presidential candidates and will witness the media extravaganza as each is announced.
Voting begins September 22nd
Early voting will begin in several states on September 22nd. This is particularly aimed at those voters who will be unable to make it to the polls in November, especially those in the military. But over the last several election cycles early voting has become more and more popular. Estimates are that 14% of voters nationwide cast early ballots in 2002. This year expectations are that early mail-in ballots could account for 30% of the votes cast. This means that both presidential camps are particularly aware that they have no time to waste in terms of defining their opponents. Although Election Day is 95 days away, for some voters it’s only a matter of 53 days.
The Veep Search
The big question in Washington right now is whether Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine is really still on the short list for Obama’s vice president picks or whether this week’s media buzz was all an elaborate ruse to throw everyone off the track of the real candidate. Opinion is split between those that believe Kaine is still a frontrunner (along with Sens. Joe Biden and Evan Bayh and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius) and those that think it will be one of the others.
Perhaps the only thing known for sure is who won’t be on either ticket. On the Democratic side it’s become crystal clear that Sen. Clinton will not be Obama’s running mate. Her high-profile role on the second night of the Democratic convention is being read as a sure sign that she is out of the mix.
And while John McCain still debates his short list of possibilities (former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former U.S. Rep. and Budget Director Rob Portman), it’s looking like the campaign will not be going for former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge.
Although Ridge is said to be close to McCain on a personal level, it’s believed that his pro-choice record on abortion would enrage the conservative social-issue base of the GOP that the campaign will need to turn out voters in November. This is particularly troubling to some GOP operatives who note that Pennsylvania will be among a handful of battleground states this fall. And the latest polling out of the Keystone state, by a GOP pollster, has Obama leading McCain there, 49% to 40%.
As to McCain’s remaining choices, it’s curious that Romney made a rather direct statement earlier this week that he will not be McCain’s running mate. Insiders are saying that he’s still in the mix.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Neither campaign has made the sale. The battle is the independent vote, and they don’t make up their minds until late.”
Ed Rollins, veteran GOP political consultant, on the presidential race.
“The problem for Republicans is they’re pessimistic, and when you’re pessimistic you don’t work as hard, you don’t turn out the vote.”
Former U.S. Rep. Vin Weber (R., Minnesota), on the challenge facing John McCain.
“If a running mate is in the national news the last two weeks of the campaign, it will be because a grievous error has been committed.”
Ken Khachigian, former senior adviser to President Ronald Reagan.
“Why surrender that shot of presumably favorable coverage when you are running close, or in some polls, ahead? And let’s face it, why is anyone going to pay any attention to the Republican convention otherwise?”
Richard Norton Smith, presidential historian, George Mason University, suggesting McCain will wait to announce his running mate.
“I think the campaign does have to be careful about its tone. A pure attack tone could be perilous.”
Veteran GOP consultant Mike Murphy, on the McCain ads.
“Republicans are in desperate need of new, fresh ideas and faces. [Sen. Ted] Stevens should resign immediately. The only thing he does by staying in is continue to damage his party.”
Anonymous GOP strategist, on the Alaskan Republican Senator.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.