Washington Wonderland

by

John J. Kohut

The Dirty Little Secret of Campaign 2012

Open marriage? Cayman Islands bank accounts? The 2012 GOP presidential race suddenly got very interesting. Unfortunately for politics fans, we currently live in a dual track world and over on track two the political grind that is Congress came back to work this week returning to that gloomy factory that produces only one product – gridlock.

Déjà vu all over again

First up this week was the meaningless vote in the House on the question of raising the debt limit. After rejecting the raise by a vote of 239 to 176, the increase will automatically take place due to last summer’s agreement that allows for such “show votes” in exchange for an automatic increase so as not to further endanger the nation’s debt ratings.

Next up: The coming battle over extending the payroll tax holiday, fully funding the long-term unemployed, and arranging for increased Medicare reimbursement rates to doctors. Once again, the buzz among Hill insiders is that what was assumed would be a pro forma vote [after all, the GOP just lost big on this issue at Christmas] is now expected to turn onto another paralyzing fight, this time centered around how to pay for the cost of all of the above.

Democrats will hold their ground, demanding that the GOP go along with increased revenues while Republicans are said to be considering a slew of options, from extending the federal pay freeze to changes to the earned income tax credit. Sound familiar? Over the next six weeks expect plenty of op-ed writers overusing allusions to the 1980s movie “Groundhog Day.” The big difference of course is that Bill Murray’s movie was funny.

The bottom line is this: For all the campaign rhetoric and Super PAC bluster that is to come, insiders know that come the cold dawn of November 7th, the country as a whole will be right back where we started.

The Election won’t change the conversation

The problems on the nation’s plate right now – unemployment, federal spending, skyrocketing heath care costs, a weakened global banking system – are not going away anytime soon. In fact, with continued Congressional inaction they are in danger of becoming multi-generational problems.

As economist Alan Blinder pointed out in this week’s Wall Street Journal, our current budget deficit problems are nothing compared with what’s coming down the line in the 2020s and 2030s and runaway health care costs will just compound the current argument over Medicare and Medicaid costs.

The next president will face the same limitations

Over the last several election cycles the balance of power has shifted back and forth between the two major parties thanks to the continued 50/50 divide among voters. 2012 is unlikely to change this dynamic despite changes in both House and Senate party ratios.

The latest take on Senate races suggests that the Democrats are likely to lose control of the chamber. Republicans need four seats to take the majority and there are plenty of Democratic seats in jeopardy. But with some GOP seats vulnerable (such as Massachusetts and Nevada) the thinking among most analysts is that the new majority will be slim and far from the 60-member majority that would make the minority ineffective. Thus a year from now the two parties in the Senate simply exchange roles, with the Democrats playing the muscular opposition role now held by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Likewise, don’t expect much change in the House. Of the 60 or so seats that are “in play,” Democrats would have to hold all of their troubled seats (about 20) and then run the table on the 40 or so GOP seats that are in jeopardy in hopes of picking up the 25 they need to take control of the House. That is highly unlikely.

Right now the chances are that Democrats will pick up clusters of GOP seats in Illinois and California and a few others here and there – enough to reduce the size of the Republican majority and put House Speaker John Boehner in an even more precarious position when it comes to having to muster an increasingly unruly majority to pass legislation.

The upside (?)

There’s already a schism brewing in GOP ranks between Tea Party true believers and their less-orthodox brethren who dared vote to compromise on some issues this past fall as well as a widening split between House and Senate GOP leaders on legislative tactics. Expect that gulf to widen this year and for the fall election results to sober the new Republican majorities.

Meanwhile, savvy Democrats and Republicans in Congress are already looking to the post-Election Day lame duck session in November and December as the time when the real work will get done this year – considering whether to further extend or finally end the “Bush tax cuts” and addressing the pending across the board cuts to the federal budget enabled by the failure of last year’s Super Committee. Perhaps that experience will steel both sides for the legislative pragmatism that the challenges of January 2013 will demand. In politics, as elsewhere, hope springs eternal.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, President Obama has been highlighting his administration’s accomplishments over the last three years with the added refrain, “change doesn’t happen overnight,” while on the GOP side, Mitt Romney has proclaims that “we are that change.”

Or as the poet said, “the more things change…….”

Washington Words:

“The upside is that the president gives a great speech before a large enthusiastic crowd. The downside is if the crowd looks like a cult meeting, like the GOP debate did in South Carolina.”

Brad Bannon, Democratic strategist, on the news that President Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic convention this summer will be at an outdoor venue

“The more you get into the presidential campaign, the more the Senate becomes an echo chamber for the presidential race.”

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D., Rhode Island)

“There’s only one way that Obama can regain momentum among white working-class people, and only one way Mitt Romney can do it, and that’s using economic populism.”

David “Mudcat” Saunders, a veteran Democratic strategist specializing in outreach to rural Southern voters

“It is not a simple issue, but voters will look at it simply. And the simple version ain’t pretty for Romney. Voters are not going to get an MBA class in private equity. The danger is that the experience that qualified Romney to be the GOP nominee in the primary election may in the end be the issue that disqualifies him in the general election. Team Obama knows the power of this issue.”

Mark McKinnon, veteran GOP strategist

“The election makes it tougher to deal with issues now…..More is going to happen in November and December than in the first ten months of the year.”

Rep. Brad Sherman (D., California), predicting that Congress will wait until the post-Election lame duck session to address the toughest issues on its legislative agenda.