Inside Washington for July 25th
From the “Careful what you ask for” Department:
Reflecting on this week’s media coverage of the two presidential candidates, one veteran media watcher opined, “John McCain is in danger of becoming the ‘Maytag repairman’ of this election.”
After the McCain camp taunted Sen. Obama for months over the issue of his going to Iraq, the Democrat countered with a tour of the war zone, Israel, and Jordan and capped off his travels with an outdoor speech in Berlin. In all, Obama’s schedule, which often had him photographed meeting world leaders, dominated media coverage throughout the day on the cable networks and led the network evening newscasts as the top political story every night.
By contrast, the McCain campaign’s efforts seemed smaller in size, with several events reinforcing the fact that all media eyes were on the Democrat – the fact that only one reporter met the candidate at a New Hampshire airport, the golfcart ride in Kennebunkport, the poorly organized Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, rally to a half-filled college auditorium, and the apparently intentionally distracting rumor that the McCain camp was seriously floating the idea of announcing its vice presidential choice this week while Obama was overseas. In fact, the campaign was probably lucky that Mother Nature intervened and cancelled his planned appearance atop an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
Overall it’s safe to say that the Obama camp won this week’s media competition, keeping the press focused on it and not John McCain. And with the political clock ticking (31 days to the Democratic National Convention, 38 until the Republicans meet, and just 102 days until Election Day), every week matters.
Four years ago the Bush reelection campaign seized this pre-convention period to begin defining Democratic nominee-in-waiting John Kerry with a series of television ads painting him as inconsistent on issues. This time around, many senior GOP insiders are bemoaning the McCain camp’s scattered approach to taking on Obama. Instead of sticking to one consistent theme, McCain spent this week deriding Obama on the war in Iraq while his campaign ran television spots blaming the Democrat for the high cost of gasoline.
All this suggests that the campaign is still searching for the one argument that could crack the Democrat’s lead in the polls. And given the outcome of this past week, don’t be surprised to see yet another shake-up in the McCain camp, or worse, a smattering of gripes in the press from anonymous GOP insiders.
The Numbers Game
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Barack Obama retaining a six-point lead over John McCain, 47%-41%. However, the poll also shows that respondents could better “identify with the background and values” of McCain than Obama, by 58% to 47%, suggesting that the Democrat has a ways to go to raise the publics’ “comfort level.”
Also this week the Quinnipiac University survey of “Battleground States” finds Obama with tight leads in Michigan (46%-42%) and Minnesota (46%-44%) and McCain taking a similar tight lead in Colorado (46%-42%). Just last month the Democrat had led in Colorado, 49% to 44%. The only significant margin this month was in Wisconsin, where Obama leads 50% to 39%.
In all, this remains a very tight contest in most key states.
And the hits just keep coming….
As several media reports have mentioned, Obama’s acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention in Denver will fall on the 45th anniversary of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s historic “I Have a Dream” speech.
In contrast, because the GOP convention is so late this year (not starting until September 1st), McCain’s acceptance speech occurs on September 4th. Which means the Republican will have to compete with NFL fans. That’s opening night of football season, with the Washington Redskins taking on the New York Giants.
Political Observations of the Week:
“At this rate, it’s only a matter of days before he opens his presidential library.”
Alex Conant, Republican National Committee spokesman, delivering a good line, but also showing GOP frustrations with the world tour press attention devoted to Sen. Barack Obama this week.
“They wouldn’t be the first running mates in the history of American politics to have said tough things about each other.”
Dan Schnur, GOP consultant, on the possibility of McCain picking Mitt Romney as his running mate.
“It looks like after months of hanging together with their leaders, they’re beginning to have an every-man-for-himself attitude.”
Jim Manley, a senior Democratic Senate aide, on the changing attitudes of GOP Senators.
“It’s not whether he wins or loses the issue nationally, it’s whether he wins it in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.”
Neil Newhouse, veteran GOP pollster, on McCain and “the economy.”
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.