Inside Washington for July 18, 2008
The only game in town
The professional political handicappers are already weeks deep into trying to figure out the complex math problem that is the race for the presidency of the United States. The basics are simple – win the plurality of a state’s voters and you win that state’s electoral votes. There are 535 electoral votes up for grabs divided among the 50 states plus 3 allotted to the District of Columbia, for a grand total of 538 votes. Since the next president needs to win a plurality of those electoral votes to take the presidency, 270 is the winning number. Figuring out how either Sens. Barack Obama or John McCain gets to 270 is the big question.
Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook has already devised a seven-category scale that divides the states up into groupings ranging from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” and, likewise, “Solid,” “Likely” and “Lean” Republican categories. According to his current projections, he has McCain ahead in 26 states with a combined total of 240 electoral votes. Obama leads in 18 states plus D.C. for a combined total of 219 electoral votes.
Under Cook’s analysis, the candidates are now both vying for the “Toss Up” category of six states (Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), Ohio (20) and Pennsylvania (21)) which, combined, account for 79 electoral votes.
Another veteran handicapper, Stu Rothenberg, has just released his own analysis of the race in which he argues that, as of today, the contest could very likely come down to five states: Colorado (9 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13). Rothenberg does not suggest that these will be the closest contests, but rather reasons that the ultimate fate of these 64 electoral votes will tell the tale.
For instance, Colorado and Virginia are still both “Red” states in terms of presidential politics because they both went for George Bush in 2000 and 2004. But the Obama camp is targeting both as potential pick-ups this year, bolstered by the fact that statewide Democrats have been doing well in each of the two states over the last election cycle.
Likewise, if McCain were to follow the Bush models from 2000 and 2004 and keep both Colorado and Virginia in the GOP column, along with Ohio, Obama’s path to victory is much more complicated.
While juggling the numbers and the various victory scenarios is a never ending game, the significance of both Cook and Rothenberg’s analyses is to remind us that the presidential race takes place on fifty battlegrounds, some much more intense than others. The fact that Obama leads McCain 52% to 42% nationally in this week’s Washington Post/ABC News poll matters little if the Democrat can’t turn specific “Red” states “Blue” in the fall.
Given the above, it’s important to note that on the campaign trail Obama has been talking about “expanding” the electoral map beyond what’s been laid out over the last two presidential elections. He’s specifically talking about spending time and money in “Red” states including Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. The campaign’s reasoning is that upset victories in these Western or Southern states would help offset potential losses in big states like Florida or Ohio which doomed the candidacies of Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry respectively.
This week his campaign opened 20 new offices across the state of Virginia. The fact that the enthusiasm surrounding his campaign has attracted a lot of new donors and volunteers gives him the money and manpower to attempt this new strategy. But it does not guarantee success. Yes, Virginia has a popular Democratic governor, elected a Democratic U.S. Senator in 2006 and will in all likelihood elect its second Democrat to the U.S. Senate this fall. But the last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election was Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 national landslide.
If the Obama game plan works, his strategists will be hailed as “the new Karl Roves.” If they lose, there will be no end to the intra-party sniping about how they should have played it safe and spent the money and manpower in traditionally Democratic states.
Political Observations of the Week:
“I think Speaker Pelosi is walking her Blue Dogs and other vulnerable Democrats off a cliff, and they know it.”
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), on Pelosi’s opposition to offshore drilling.
“We’re carrion birds. We’re sitting up there saying ‘Does he seem weak? Is he dehydrated yet? Let’s attack.’”
“The Daily Show’s” Jon Stewart, on the relationship between late night comedians and presidential candidates.
“To be elected to Congress you either have to be wealthy or know a lot of wealthy people.”
Massie Ritsch, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics.
“A lot of Republicans believe McCain will end up serving only one term if he’s elected. If he serves one term, that means if you’re VP, you are the choice in four years. Republicans almost always nominate the next person in line. Democrats don’t always do so.”
Larry Sabato, political scientist, University of Virginia.
“He has no overlying theme; he has given no compelling reason to vote for him. Voters respond to a short message that sticks: ‘Morning in America,’ ‘It’s the economy stupid.’ If he does not come up with a compelling reason, he will be looking at a 60-40 loss.”
David Johnson, co-founder of the public relations firm Strategic Vision and a veteran of Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign, on Sen. John McCain.
“There’s at least an argument to be made that a Democrat who doesn’t sound too much like a traditional East Coast liberal – a label Obama has been working hard to disown in these weeks prior to the convention – has a shot at one or more of the traditionally Republican Western states.”
David Birdsell, Baruch College School of Public Affairs.
“This moment only reinforces that we have to let the younger guys take the lead in politics, that they know the issues of today, that we live in a far different world than 20 years ago.”
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis, on the flap over Jesse Jackson’s criticisms of Sen. Barack Obama.