Signs of things to come….
As both parties engage in top secret planning strategies for the months ahead, details are beginning to leak out about a number of “big ticket” political items, including the conventions, the vice presidential choices, and what states are shaping up as the political “ground zero” for the fall.
The Democratic Convention: The big news is that the Obama campaign has ramped up the symbolism meter to its highest level ever with their decision to move the nominee’s acceptance speech out of Denver’s Pepsi Center (seating of 19,000 and the site of the convention’s first three days) and into Invesco Field at Mile High, the football stadium that’s home to the Denver Broncos (seating 76,000).
If the weather holds, this means a huge, loud crowd and great television as the Senator accepts his party’s nomination. The cultural context, which will be mentioned repeatedly by the cable news networks, is that John F. Kennedy made the same play in 1960, moving his acceptance speech outdoors to the 80,000 seat Los Angeles Coliseum. Further, Obama’s speech will come on the 45th anniversary of the day the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech.
The only lingering problem for the Democrats – and it could be a big one – is “What to do about Hillary?” The current intra-party psychodrama is the question of whether or not to allow a roll call vote for the nomination with both Obama’s and Clinton’s names put into nomination. The debate is whether or not this can be avoided, with the problem being whether those 1,600 delegates that Clinton won will feel slighted if they are not allowed to publicly declare their votes for her. If they do, it means television analysts gabbing about all those big states Obama lost.
The Republican Convention: There are two big problems facing the Republicans as they prepare to gather in Minneapolis on September 1st. The first concerns “What to do about George?” So far President Bush is scheduled to deliver his speech to the convention on its first night and then get out of town. The debate in the McCain camp is whether or not the Senator should be seen with the President on the stage after the speech.
On the plus side, the unpopular President remains very popular with most of the grass roots folks who will be present in the hall that night and McCain needs those people to transfer those feelings of support from the President to his candidacy. On the down side, the campaign is leery about yet another shot of McCain with the unpopular President as it will surely be used as political cannon fodder in the fall. [In addition, there is still no word on the role Vice President Cheney would play at the convention, with some suggesting that there is a certain degree of coolness between the Vice President’s office and the McCain camp.]
The second problem is much more “inside baseball” but it could spill over into the news coverage. It’s about the writing of the GOP’s 2008 “Platform” document. Although it lays out the policy positions of the national party, it’s a document no one reads. But it means a lot to the social conservative activist core of the GOP, who, along with the McCain camp, must come to a compromise on its content. This could prove difficult and divisive as McCain differs with the conservatives on embryonic stem cell research, campaign finance laws, global warming and, most importantly, immigration reform. At the least, the McCain camp has to prepare for dispirited conservative leaders venting their policy differences to news reporters.
The Vice Presidential Short Lists: The Democratic short list just got shorter now that Virginia Sen. Jim Webb has taken himself out of the running. He joins Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who has also bowed out. And forget about former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner. The party is counting on him to win the open Senate seat in that state in November.
But a lot of insiders are asking why former Democratic Party Chair and ultimate Clinton insider Terry McAuliffe suddenly appears to be talking up Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as a great choice for Vice President.
On the GOP side, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Hewlitt-Packard CEO and current McCain supporter is apparently still in the mix as a possible pick but her stock has dropped a little as more party insiders think the choice is too risky.
On the other hand, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains everybody’s first choice, particularly among those in various factions of the Bush family camps [father, son, and brother Jeb]. It’s the McCain camp that would still have to be convinced at this stage.
And while former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge would certainly put that state [and maybe others] in play, his pro-choice stance on abortion is being weighed as too costly a risk in that it would be the last straw for conservative party activists already distrustful of the McCain organization.
The Battleground States: The AFL-CIO is launching a series of anti-McCain television spots in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin this month. That gives a strong indication on where strategists believe this presidential campaign will be won or lost.

Political Observations of the Week:
“I don’t think there are a lot of people who want to see him at the convention.”
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R., California), on President Bush.

“I think you’ll see [Republican] House members who won their last race by 60%-65% lose because of the turnout model that Obama brings.”
Rep. Adam Putnam (R., Florida), House Republican Conference Chair, on the political outlook for House Republicans this fall.

“They need a roll call that looks good for Obama. That’s what conventions are all about.”
Tad Devine, veteran Democratic consultant, on Democratic Convention planning.

“It’s a mistake to assume that Obama’s money equals a win for the Democratic candidates down ballot.”
Sen. John Ensign (R., Nevada), Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.