Cool facts about hot summer politics
With the 2008 presidential race in full general election mode, here’s some political data to ponder over the July 4th break.
Modern American presidential races always “close:” Writing in the Wall Street Journal, columnist John Fund noted that over the last thirty years we have witnessed numerous presidential campaigns during which one major party candidate had a seemingly insurmountable lead over the other during the summer months only to see that lead evaporate and the gap close significantly as election day neared.
This was especially true in 1976, 1988, 1992, and 2004. In fact, the classic example sited by every political journalist is always the 1988 race. In June and July of that year Democrat Michael Dukakis led GOP Vice President George Bush by consistently wide margins. At one point, Dukakis, who was trounced by Bush in November, led the Republican by 16 percentage points.
The Latino vote will set a record turnout this fall: USA Today political reporter Kathy Kiely cites the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) as predicting that November will see an estimated 9.2 million Hispanic voters go to the polls. Latino voters (the “fastest-growing voting block in the nation”) make up 17.3% of the electorate in California, 11.2% in Florida, 33.8% in New Mexico, 8.8% in Colorado, 8.6% in Nevada, 14.2% in Arizona, and 8.7% in New York. Of these states, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada will be “ground zero” in the fight to win the western region of the country.
The unpopular President is still the chief GOP fundraiser: While GOP candidates may seek to avoid being pictured with President Bush,come the fall, each and every one of them will benefit in some way from his fundraising prowess. That’s because he continues to raise large sums of money for the various arms of the National Republican Party, for select GOP candidates and for state GOP parties. Over the past eight years he has raised more than $794 million at hundreds of personal fundraising events across the country. In the current election cycle he’s raised $134 million and counting.
Obama leads McCain in Wall Street cash: According to an analysis of campaign contributions by the New York Daily News, senior financial industry figures from Wall Street’s investment and banking sectors have contributed nearly twice as much money to the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, as to the campaign of Sen. John McCain. So far they’ve given $9.5 million to the Democrat and only $5.3 million to the Republican. This despite Obama’s professed plans to raise the taxes of high-income taxpayers.
Will Democrats take back the South in ’08? The Obama campaign is devoting time, money and resources in an attempt to make history and win some of the 13 southern states that eluded Democratic presidential contenders in 2000 and 2004. The campaign is betting that an aggressive voter registration drive in the region targeting unregistered young people and African-Americans will pay off in November.
On their radar screen are Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas. Remember, the South has been a near impregnable region for Democrats to crack in terms of presidential politics. Democratic nominee Al Gore did not win his home state of Tennessee in 2000 and Vice Presidential nominee John Edwards could not put his home state of North Carolina in the Democratic column for John Kerry in 2004.
Obama off to strong leads in battleground states: The latest surveys by Quinnipiac University in four key battleground states show Sen. Obama leading Sen. McCain in every contest. The Democrat leads McCain 49% to 44% in Colorado, 48% to 42% in Michigan, 54% to 37% in Minnesota, and 52% to 39% in Wisconsin. Of the four states, only Colorado, scene of the coming Democratic National Convention in August, was won by the GOP in 2004. Recent Quinnipiac polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania also found the Democrat leading in each of those states.
But as was noted at the start, with 19 weeks to go until November, things can change.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Wall Street wants change and wants a curtailment in spending. It wants someone who focuses on the domestic economy. It wants a Clinton like in 1992, but not a Hillary Clinton. That’s Barack Obama.”
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money.”
“This election is remarkably fluid with two non-incumbents running. Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds, and a third of independent voters aren’t paying much attention yet.”
Pollster Scott Rasmussen.
“McCain’s campaign seems not to have a game plan. I don’t see a consistent message. As someone who has run campaigns, this campaign is not running smoothly. But none of this matters if they get their act together.”
Veteran GOP consultant Ed Rollins.
“If he doesn’t start talking about the social issues, I don’t see how he can possibly win Ohio.”
Phil Burress, head of an Ohio “family values” advocacy group, on the McCain campaign.
“A veto by the president? Gee whiz, who would be afraid of him? He has a 29-percent approval rating. How in the world could anybody be afraid of him vetoing a bill?”
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nevada), criticizing GOP Senators for voting against a Medicare bill.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
