Drilling for votes a risky business?
Unyielding gas prices are making for an increasingly angry electorate which in turn has led some Republicans, including President Bush and Sen. John McCain, to call for lifting the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling and to open new Western regions to oil-shale drilling. While the concept of increased domestic production may placate some voters, the fact is that any move in that direction would be met with a lot of opposition in two key states – Florida and California.
In Florida, former Gov. Jeb Bush was adamantly opposed to the idea, as are most of the state’s Congressional delegation (Republicans included) and the majority of statewide public opinion. However, current Gov. Charlie Crist, opposed to offshore drilling in the past, has now changed positions to support the idea. The popular Crist is also on the short list of possible McCain running mates this year. Meanwhile, in California, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger this week uttered a “Terminator-like” statement that the idea of drilling off his state’s coast was dead on arrival.
The fact that McCain has joined the unpopular President in calling for more drilling appears to be a bit risky politically, particularly when you consider that his campaign plans to try and put California “in play” in terms of the general election and in light of most political analyses which already give him a strong edge over Sen. Barack Obama in Florida. Also, the McCain campaign has just launched a new television spot touting his history as a strong environmentalist.
Still, McCain and GOP Congressional leaders are gambling that they may create a campaign issue to use against Democrats in the fall. Public opinion nationwide suggests that frustrated voters want cheaper gas and are willing to support any possible route, including offshore drilling, to get there.
The challenge for Democrats (the vast majority of whom are opposed to lifting the offshore ban), and Sen. Obama in particular, will be to find a way to cut through the voter anger in order to make a viable case for their view that the increased drilling will not have an immediate impact on gas prices and will only benefit “Big Oil.”
While it’s highly unlikely that this skirmish will be a defining battle in the coming election, it is more evidence that, given the angry electorate, the battle this fall will be fought on economic terms and the winning candidates will be those who best channel that voter anger.
Senate polls tell the story
A new batch of polls surveying U.S. Senate races, conducted by the Rasmussen polling firm, suggest a number of incumbent GOP Senators are at or below the 50% mark in terms of voter support. Such positioning is widely assumed to be a strong sign of vulnerability in an election year.
They include: Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, at 46%; Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas, at 48%; Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky at 50%; Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota at 48%; and Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon at 47%.
In a remarkable sign of strong voter support, in the open Virginia Senate seat race, former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner is already polling at 60%.
Countdown to November 4th:
For those keeping track, there are now just 137 days left until Election Day 2008.
There are three scheduled Presidential debates: September 26th, at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Mississippi; October 7th, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee; and October 15th, at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.
The single Vice Presidential debate will be held on October 2nd, at Washington University, in St. Louis, Missouri.
Political Observations of the Week:
“We’re not going within 30 miles of the city he’s in.”
McCain Campaign adviser Charlie Black, on the fact that, while both Sen. McCain and President Bush would be touring the Midwestern flooding, they would not be making any joint appearances.
“When drivers are paying $4 for a gallon of gas and there’s the perception that the economy’s going to hell in a hand-basket, voter attitudes regarding offshore drilling can change pretty quickly. All of our evidence indicates that’s exactly what’s happened.”
Veteran GOP pollster Neil Newhouse.
“To have President Bush be the face of this issue for the Republicans means having the worst possible spokesman.”
Democratic strategist Geoff Garin, on the oil drilling plan.
“Forever is a long time.”
Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), in response to being asked if he plans to be a Democrat “forever.”
“If you have an ‘R’ in front of your name, you had better run scared.”
Sen. John Ensign (R., Nevada), Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on the uphill battle for GOP candidates this fall.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
