Know the Vice Presidential Contenders
With the Democratic presidential nomination race all but over, the attention of Washington’s political handicappers has move on to the next big question: who will McCain/Obama choose for running mates? This enduring ritual is the political equivalent of “Goldilocks and the Three Bears” – this one’s too hot, that one’s too cold, but this one’s just right!
While it’s long been debated that the eventual pick does little as far as impacting the general election race [most polling shows that no one casts a general election ballot with the vice presidential choice in mind], the necessity of having to chose a running mate is largely based on the physician’s credo: “First, do no harm.”
Let’s start with Sen. McCain, simply because he was the first to invite three possible contenders out to his ranch last weekend.
1) Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Pros: He’s currently the darling of the social conservative wing of the GOP and he’s very smart when it come to debating public policy issues.
Cons: He’s very young. He’s only been in his current job for less than a year. It’s questionable that he’d have regional appeal outside his home state.
2) Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Pros: Successful governor and businessman who looks great on television. Given his roots, he could put Michigan in play.
Cons: Lingering concerns among GOP social conservatives about his Mormon faith – concerns that hurt Romney in this year’s race. Doubts that he could put Massachusetts in play.
3) Florida Gov. Charlie Crist
Pros: Hugely popular in Florida, a key battleground state. Looks great on television.
Cons: Simply doesn’t have the strong ties to the conservative base of the party – something most GOP strategists suggest McCain needs to excite them in the fall.
4) Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Pros: The homespun, common man, “awe, shucks” demeanor that served him so well during the primaries. He’s personable and funny and well liked by conservatives.
Cons: He won’t play well outside of the South. And his gaffe over his Obama joke at the NRA convention did not help his short-term prospects.
5) Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Pros: Puts Minnesota in play. He’s conservative but with a pleasant Midwestern persona.
Cons: Not exactly a dynamic personality and so might not excite the activist base of the party.
6) Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge
Pros: Puts Pennsylvania in play. A former Vietnam Vet and first head of Department of Homeland Security following 911, he further strengthens McCain’s defense credentials.
Cons: His pro-choice position on abortion has always been a problem among the GOP’s social conservative base.
Other names being kicked around: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, former Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

Sen. Obama’s short list:
1) Sen. Hillary Clinton
Pros: Mends all fences.
Cons: Goes against the meat of his campaign message – that he’s not about the Washington establishment. Also, puts a really high profile family in the Vice President’s mansion.
2) Virginia Sen. Jim Webb
Pros: Tough former Vietnam Vet who’s strong on defense. Could very well put Virginia in the Democratic column.
Cons: A bit too conservative for Obama’s liberal base? More importantly, Democrats need him in that Senate seat come January 2009.
3) New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson
Pros: Will help him in the West and among Latino voters. A strong foreign policy background.
Cons: Not the greatest of campaigners.
4) The Hillary Clinton supporters:
Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana
Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell
Florida Sen. Bill Nelson
Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark
Pros: They help mend the Hillary schism. They are all serious professionals with appeal throughout the party. Rendell helps put Pennsylvania in play, Nelson does it in Florida.
Cons: They are not Clinton.
5) The Female Democratic Office holders:
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas
Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona
Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Pros: Good campaigners, new faces, appeal in their regions and probably outside their regions.
Cons: They are not Clinton.

Other names being mentioned: Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey (too young), Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (too establishment), former Georgia Sen. Sam Nun (too old), Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (not enough experience).

Political Observations of the Week:
“Lyndon Johnson was the last guy who delivered anything meaningful to his nominee.”
Former Minnesota Rep. Vin Weber, a veteran GOP strategist, on the Vice Presidential hunt.

“Tell me (who wins) Colorado and I will tell you the winner (of the 2008 general election). The political geography has changed.”
Bernadette Budde, political analyst at BIPAC (the Business-Industry Political Action Committee). Budde, a long-time Washington political analyst, has more often than not proved to be prescient during a career spent handicapping elections across the U.S. Her point is that there will be a new emphasis on Western states (California, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico) in this year’s race.

“Anyone who thinks she will return to the body in a weakened condition does not understand the nature of politics.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., South Carolina), on Sen. Clinton returning to the Senate after losing the Democratic nomination.

“I think any Republican who doesn’t say panic is in the wind is lying through their shirt. The question is, is that panic caused by McCain’s campaign – or lack thereof in some respects – or is it the climate.”
Ron Kaufman, GOP strategist and former adviser to the Mitt Romney campaign.

“Most of the time when you’re five runs behind going into the bottom of the ninth, you don’t prevail, but I’ve never seen the Dodgers walk off the field.”
Rep. Brad Sherman (D., California), on the Clinton campaign.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.