Ten factors that will shape politics in the coming months
With just over five months until Election Day and all eyes still glued to the Democratic presidential nomination fight, here’s a Top 10 list of factors likely to shape American politics as we know it this year and next.
1) The impending loss of legislative knowledge in the U.S. Senate: News of Senator Ted Kennedy’s health concerns, coupled with a number of open seat Senate races this year suggests that next year’s Senate chamber will not only be filled with many new faces, but will also be missing a lot of historical perspective and legislative gravitas. If Kennedy is forced to step aside, he takes with him 46 years of invaluable experience and perspective. Retiring Sens. John Warner in Virginia, a key mind on defense issues, has been there for 30 years, while Pete Domenici of New Mexico, a budget expert, 36 years. Nebraskan Chuck Hagel, while only serving 12 years, is also leaving and he takes with him his warrior’s perspective as a decorated Vietnam vet. And now on the politically endangered list is Alaska’s Ted Stevens, a towering GOP figure, who’s called the Senate home for 42 years. They take with them a wealth of experience on the nuts and bolts of running a government.
2) The RNC war chest that awaits McCain: Although Sen. Barack Obama has assembled a powerful and impressive fund-raising machine that outclasses Sen. John McCain’s, the Republican will not be a pauper come the fall. As of today, the Republican National Committee has $40.6 million in the bank. That money, and the millions more to be raised between now and the GOP convention, will be at the disposal of the McCain campaign, ensuring that he will be a monetarily viable competitor to the Democratic nominee.
3) The National Republican Congressional Committee change in strategy: Reeling from its three special election losses so far this year, the NRCC has decided to break precedent and now enter the fray of competitive House GOP primary contests and back the candidate they believe will have the best chance in the general election. This move may save them a few seats.
4) The Democratic National Convention May 31st meeting on Florida and Michigan: The Democratic party has set May 31st as a day-long event to hear from all sides in the dispute over “what-to-do” about seating the two states’ delegations at the August Convention. Although it was once promising, this meeting may just fan the flames over the whole argument.
5) Mark McKinnon leaves the McCain campaign: Mark McKinnon, the McCain campaign’s chief advertising strategist and a brilliant political mind, has decided to honor a pledge he made last year (that he would not be involved in a campaign that opposed the candidacy of Sen. Obama) and has left the McCain campaign. In terms of pure political talent, this is a big loss for the GOP side.
6) A Senate minus Kennedy hurts whoever’s President: As Washington Post political guru David Broder points out this week, Sen. Ted Kennedy’s leadership skills would be invaluable to the next President, whoever it may be. Kennedy would be the only serious deal-maker available to a President McCain to try and move a compromise agenda through Congress while he would be at the heart of spearheading the legislative vision of a President Obama.
7) GOP Senate losses could be much worse than expected: Early polling in a number of states by the Rasmussen organization suggests that a number of incumbent GOP Senators are already locked in tight contests. While it’s still early and these are not seats currently expected to change hands, it’s troubling to Republicans to see Texas Sen. John Cornyn polling at under-50% while North Carolina’s Sen. Elizabeth Dole actually trails her opponent by one point. Also looking at tight contests: Sens. Susan Collins in Maine and Gordon Smith in Oregon.
Obama will not go quietly in Florida: Although he’s polling well behind Sen. John McCain in Florida, Sen. Barack Obama is not writing off the swing state. His campaign is beginning to flood the state with its experienced staffers and this week the Democrat begins what is expected to be a summer-long series of campaign stops there.
9) With the GOP retirees goes their PAC money: As USA Today pointed out this week, the high number of Republican members leaving the House and Senate this year will impact GOP fundraising as a whole. With their attention focused on life beyond Congress, these members are not raising money for their political action committees at anywhere near their previous rates. Which means less money to donate to their colleagues this year.
10) African American voter turnout this fall could be staggering: Political scientists including Larry Sabato and David Bositis have noted the significant increase in black voter turnout in this year’s primaries in states like Georgia, South Carolina, Maryland, Virginia and Louisiana. Sabato said that if the rates hold, they will “encourage the ‘purplization’ of red states” this fall.
Political Observations of the Week:
“If you ask the 99 other Senators to name the most powerful member, and then to name the most popular, Kennedy is the only one who would end up on both lists.”
Michael Goldman, Boston political consultant.
“Numbers don’t lie. What it means [the $40-million RNC war chest] is that the total money available to the McCain campaign will be competitive to the money available to Obama. The RNC is keeping McCain very much in the hunt.”
Whit Ayres, veteran GOP strategist.
“I think the way back to the majority is to the right.”
Rep. Mike Pence (R., Indiana)
_____________________________________________
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
