Has the GOP meltdown begun?
There’s only one story in Washington this week and it’s not Hillary Clinton’s victory in West Virginia or John Edwards’ endorsement of Barack Obama. Rather, it is the GOP’s loss of its third straight special election in a row this year, which happened on Tuesday in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District.
While House special elections come and go, it is not possible to overstate the political significance of what is taking place – the House GOP has lost three seats [Illinois 14th, Louisiana 6th, and now Mississippi 1st] in what up until now has been solid Republican territory. These seats should not have been in play, let alone lost, and this, despite the fact that the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent more than one million dollars on each contest in an effort to hold onto these districts. If the 2008 Congressional elections were a horror movie, the audience would be screaming at the GOP delegation to stop sending its members down into the dark basement.
Although it is often dubious to try and extrapolate national trends from isolated political contests (and at least one well known political analyst is cautioning against drawing national conclusions from these contests), the fact of the matter is that, in 2008, all politics is perception and the perception that is hanging over Washington right now, particularly in GOP circles, is that the party is in deep trouble and stands to lose a significant number of House seats in November unless something catastrophic occurs to change the national political dynamic. As things stand today, the litany of troubles that occupies the national psyche – gas prices, home foreclosures, rising food costs, an unpopular President and his unpopular war – is a weight that appears to be crushing the Grand Old Party.
While some in the House GOP leadership have branded the Mississippi results a “wake-up call,” other party insiders have likened it to a screeching fire alarm telling everyone to leave the building. For their part, Democrats were quick to point out that this is the first time in more than 30 years when their party has picked up three GOP seats in special elections during the same election cycle. Driving home the degree of this week’s loss, they remind the press that Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Mississippi), who until his appointment to the U.S. Senate earlier this year held the 1st District since 1994, regularly won reelection with between 63% and 79% of the vote. Newly-elected Democratic Rep. Travis Childers won the 1st on Tuesday by an 8-point margin.
The political ramifications of these three losses will be first and foremost the impact on GOP House fundraising. The perception that the party is on the downward spiral will likely have a cascading effect on donors, which in turn can lead to more bad press, thus reinforcing the negative perceptions, and on, and on.
If this perception were to play out in November, the political bottom line would mean a much bigger Democratic House majority and thus, come January 2009, a Democratic Congress with a much freer reign over shaping and enacting their own public policy agenda.
Political Observations of the Week:
“The political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than the fall of 2006, when we lost 30 seats (and our majority) and came within a couple of percentage points of losing another 15 seats.”
Rep. Tom Davis (R., Virginia), writing in a memo to his fellow House Republicans following the loss of the special election in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday. Davis, a former head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is widely regarded as the most politically astute of his House colleagues.
“Since 1980 I have not seen a terrain so tilted against one party as it is against the Republicans in 2008. To be sure, Barack Obama may face a close race against John McCain, but there is no evidence his candidacy would harm Democratic congressional prospects.”
Norman Ornstein, political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.
“Republican leadership needs to really take a good look in the mirror. They’re taking the party off the cliff.”
Scott Reed, veteran GOP strategist.
“There are indications that the normal Republican turnout is just not there. If they can’t win up there [Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District], where are you going to win?”
Merle Black, the pre-eminent expert on Southern politics and political scientist at Emory University, on Tuesday’s election.
“Organizationally, we have now built very powerful organizations in every state but Michigan and Florida. That is one huge silver lining to how long this nomination fight has gone on.”
David Plouffe, campaign manager for Sen. Barack Obama.
“We’re all in. Why quit? We haven’t seen all of our cards yet.”
Rep. Charlie Rangel (D., New York), on the Clinton campaign’s decision to keep going.
