May’s other political stories
Yes, nationally, all eyes are on May 6th’s two Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. But political operatives from both major parties are keeping their fingers on the pulse of two special House elections this month where conservative Democratic candidates have a chance to take two open seats long-held by the GOP.
The first contest, in Louisiana, is the 6th District seat left vacant by retired Rep. Richard Baker. This solid GOP seat has been in Republican hands for 34 years. Still, conservative Democratic St. Rep. Don Cazayoux has a strong chance to take the seat from GOP candidate Woody Jenkins, a veteran ex-state representative. The odds are still against the Democrat but a win here on Saturday would be a major upset.
Next is a special election run-off on May 13th in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District, left vacant when incumbent Rep. Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the vacant U.S. Senate seat of retiring Sen. Trent Lott in January.
Democrat Travis Childers, the chancery clerk of Prentiss County, nearly won the special election outright, falling just six-tenths of one percent short of the magic 50% mark. That threw him into the run-off against Republican Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven.
Republicans have held this seat since 1994 and Davis has gone to great lengths to link Childers to “liberal” Democrats in Washington. He’s even drawn Barack Obama (whom Childers has endorsed) and the Rev. Wright drama into the race with a television spot saying that Childers has lost his conservative roots. Still, this seat remains within Childers’ grasp.
The significance of these two races is clear. These seats are on solid GOP ground. President Bush won both districts easily in 2000 and 2004. While its always dangerous to extrapolate national meaning from local political contests, the fact that the GOP has already lost one “safe” GOP seat this year (that of former House Speaker Denny Hastert in Illinois) and now stands to possibly lose two more in its once “solid South” region speaks volumes about both the mood of the voters this year and the dismal reputation of the GOP “brand.”
Will Indiana and North Carolina settle anything? Probably not.
There are two certainties about the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. One, the atmosphere seems to be in flux, with lots of movement among polling numbers. But two, at the same time, the delegate number count continues to increase for Sen. Barack Obama. Odds are that the outcome of Tuesday’s contests may increase that mood of uncertainty while leaving Obama in the lead in the delegate count.
The latest national horse race numbers have tightened:
Pew Research: Obama 47%/Clinton 45%
CNN: Obama 46%/Clinton 45%
WSJ/NBC: Obama 46%/Clinton 43%
And now Clinton shows significant leads over Sen. John McCain in a survey of key general election “swing” states while Obama is only within the margin of error with the Republican in two of the contests:
Quinnipiac University:
Florida: Clinton 49%/McCain 41%
[Obama 43%/McCain 44%]
Ohio: Clinton 48%/McCain 38%
[Obama 42%/McCain 43%]
Pennsylvania: Clinton 51%/McCain 37%
[Obama 47%/McCain 38%]
As to Indiana and North Carolina, the former remains neck and neck between Clinton and Obama while in the latter, Clinton has brought herself within single-digit striking range in a state where Obama previously had led by upwards of 25 points. All of which suggests that the Rev. Wright controversy, coupled with Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania last month, have chipped away at Obama’s lead.
A Clinton win in Indiana next Tuesday is not unexpected. But if she goes on to hold Obama to a close margin in North Carolina, expect that mood of uneasiness in the Democratic race to be front and center in post-election coverage.
Political Observations of the Week:
“The nearly unprecedented negative mood of the country is presenting significant challenges for other Republican candidates.”
GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, on the “down-ballot” drag on GOP candidates this year.
“There were times when Republicans reacted with just horror that he would lead the ticket. Now there is not the sense of him being invulnerable, the magic bullet. I think there has been a major change.”
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg, on GOP perceptions of Barack Obama.
“He is an unguided missile who occasionally hits his wife accidentally.”
Democratic consultant Bob Shrum, on Bill Clinton.
“I feel sorry for Obama. This Wright guy is like a piece of gum on the bottom of your shoe. You can’t get rid of it.”
GOP strategist Ed Rollins.
“The dumbest, most narcissistic act I’ve seen in politics in near 40 years.”
Former presidential aide David Gergen, on Rev. Wight’s performance at the National Press Club.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
