Inside Washington for April 25, 2008
Lessons from the Pennsylvania Primary
The Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary is finally over but the race goes on forever. While it was a foregone conclusion that Sen. Hillary Clinton would win, her margin (officially just short of 10 percentage points) has obviously given her campaign a boost in fundraising and put some brakes on the march of undecided “Superdelegates” towards the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama.
There are about six weeks remaining to the primary calendar. All eyes are on May 6th when Indiana and North Carolina hold their contests. While Obama is clearly favored in the latter, the question of what happens in Indiana could have a huge impact on the remaining course of this race. Yes, pundits have been saying that about each upcoming primary but this is the last one that will occur in a big state and both candidates are about evenly matched going into this one. The onus is on Clinton to win another largely industrial state and on Obama to show that he can win the votes of blue collar white Democrats.
After the 6th it’s on to West Virginia on May 13, Kentucky and Oregon on May 20, Puerto Rice on June 1st and Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd. Then some decisions will have to be made by the much-in-demand “Superdelegates.” Or not. The bottom line is that no one really knows what happens after the 3rd of June.
But as the campaigns proceed to Indiana, they will surely remember a few things from Pennsylvania. First, as the song says, “Money can’t buy me love,” or votes. At the start of the Keystone State campaign the Obama camp was outspending the Clinton camp by as much as five-to-one there. By the last two weeks it had settled into a three-to-one pace, running as much as a dozen different television spots statewide simultaneously. The cash-poor Clinton camp had no chance of matching those media buys. But the fact is that Clinton is such a known quantity that in the end it did not matter. Admittedly, Democratic Party strategists are divided over the money argument and what effect the Obama advantage will have as we enter the end game. Some say it will be the one decisive edge that will win Indiana for Obama while others say that it will be a wash. But the Pennsylvania results prove once again that money is not the only decisive factor in politics.
Second, “It’s the economy, stupid!” That campaign warhorse of a slogan from the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign is clearly back front-and-center in the national consciousness. While the war in Iraq is still a touchstone for a hard-core minority of Democratic primary voters, it’s the current housing/gas/food prices mantra that is what voters want to hear addressed. And as to the link between the war and the economy, freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy, a committed Obama Superdelegate from Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, was one of the post-primary handicappers driving home the growing Democratic message that “money spent in Iraq is money that can’t be spent here.”
Third, despite a lot of cries to the contrary, the continuing Democratic contest has more upside than downside for the party going into the fall campaign. First, new party registrants and turnout continue to set records in almost every state. In Pennsylvania, two long-time majority-GOP-registration counties, Bucks and Montgomery (both Philadelphia suburbs) are now majority-Democratic-registration counties.
And as the campaigns continue to collect funds, they are building huge donor lists that can be tapped for the fall. At the same time, both the Obama and Clinton camps are building their “ground game” organizations in each and every state. If the contest had ended back in February, these states would not be as “hardwired” today in terms of building the organizations that will be critical come September.
Political Observations of the Week:
“What they’re hoping for is a pause in the decision-making process.”
Pat Buchanan, on the Clinton campaign’s Pennsylvania win.
“This is like finding out after the third overtime there’s going to be a fourth overtime.”
Bill Carrick, veteran Democratic strategist, on the Pennsylvania primary results.
“Obama and Clinton could still run together – stranger things have happened in American politics. But I’m not sure I would call that the ‘dream ticket.’”
Anonymous Democrat
“They’re trying to convince everyone they’re just folks. Most people who get to the point of running for president aren’t sitting down for Sunday dinner with just folks.”
Claire Sullivan, Pennsylvania voter, speaking about the Democratic contenders to The Wall Street Journal.
“There’s no Bob Strauss anymore.”
Former Sen. Tom Daschle, bemoaning the lack of a Democratic Party dignitary with the gravitas to end the Democratic presidential race.
“And he was dead to us.”
Anonymous Clinton campaign supporter, on Sen. John Kerry not only endorsing Sen. Obama, but publicly criticizing former President Bill Clinton before the South Carolina Primary.
“It’s one thing to have a principled position on an issue at odds with that of your party. It’s another to become the champion of the other party’s nominee in a presidential election.”
Thomas Mann, Presidential scholar at the Brookings Institution, on Sen. Joe Lieberman’s support of Sen. John McCain for president.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.