There’s somethin’ happenin’ here (what it is, is pretty clear)
It doesn’t take a weatherman to tell you that there’s some sort of electoral storm brewing across the U.S. this election year. The first hint came in January and February during the first and second wave of presidential primaries and caucuses. Anecdotes about long lines at polling places and precincts running out of ballots gave way to post-election stats showing huge Democratic turnout in state after state.
By the middle of March, the estimates were that almost 18 million more voters had turned out to vote in this year’s primaries than did in 2000. As of February 5th’s Super Tuesday, already more than 27% of eligible voters nationwide had turned out to cast ballots in this year’s contests, putting the country on track to surpass the 25.9% presidential primary turnout record of 1972. And as of this week, primary turnout records have been broken in 23 states.
Now a presentation of election data compiled by the Dayton Daily News based on Federal Election Commission data and reports from various Secretaries of State across the country illustrates just how big a surge is occurring in Democratic turnout in each state. Comparing this year’s presidential primary turnout data with that from the 2000 primary season, one can see that Democratic rates are staggeringly high while GOP turnout rates appear alarmingly low.
Taking just a quick look at the big states, we see Democratic turnout in California up 55% while GOP turnout dropped by 29% from eight years earlier. In Ohio, Democratic turnout was up 128% while the GOP rate was -24%. True, the GOP nomination race had largely fallen apart by then but even in a state like Texas, where there was still a spirited GOP primary on March 4th, the GOP turnout rate was up only 23% from 2000 while the Democratic rate was up 265%. Even Virginia (a GOP bastion until the last few election cycles) saw GOP turnout drop 26% from 2000 while the Democratic rate increased 149%.
Well, this is of course all easily explainable: the Democratic race is exciting Democrats while the GOP race pretty much did not excite Republicans.
But now consider another wave of election data that further bolsters the argument that this country may be witnessing a “change” election of historic proportions come November.
The latest figures concern voter registration and they are a direct consequence of the never-ending Democratic presidential primary. A survey of voter registration by USA Today shows that it is rising by record numbers in six of the eight remaining primary states.
Kentucky, which counted more than 21,000 new voters registered in only the first two months of this year, is seeing another surge of registrations. North Carolina has registered 165,449 new voters since January, an increase of almost 3% of the state’s total voter registration. Oregon expects more than 50,000 new voters to register before the end of April.
Pennsylvania has experienced a huge surge in registration last month. Between March 4th and the state’s registration deadline on March 24th, 66,000 new Democrats were put on the voter rolls while 106,000 previously registered voters switched their party identification to Democrat, meaning that more than 172,000 new Democrats could be voting in the April 22nd primary. Interestingly, two long-time GOP majority registration counties in the state – Bucks and Montgomery – both Philadelphia suburbs, are now majority-Democrat registration counties for the first time in memory.
The bottom line? While primary turnout rates are no firm predictor of general election rates, the momentum suggests the likelihood of record turnout this fall. But more interesting is the question of what the impact of all these new, energized voters will be on the “down-ballot” races. A big Democratic “surge” in the presidential contest could yield some unforeseen consequences not just at the gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and U.S. House levels, but at the state legislature and county-wide contests in a number of states. Which are just a few more reasons why November 4th, 2008 is shaping up to be an historic election day in more ways than one.
Political Observations of the Week:
“People forget: In Nebraska, in the last 11 Senate races a Democrat has won nine times. That’s better than New York.”
Vince Powers, Nebraska election consultant and Democratic superdelegate, touting Democratic electoral strength in the state.
“Our patience is not unlimited.”
Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyoming), to Gen. David Petraeus.
“Nobody can make the decision except you. And you have to make the decision in a way that you don’t second guess yourself the rest of your life.”
Former Democratic Rep. Tony Coelho (California), explaining why no one can tell a presidential candidate when to throw in the towel.
“If you end up with a brawl in Denver eight weeks before the national election, you will not win that national election – count on it.”
Sen. Chris Dodd (D., Connecticut).
“You can put all the lipstick on a pig you want, but we’re not doing well [financially].”
Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), on GOP fundraising for House candidates.
“Anytime you’re in an election year, there’s always a tension between ‘do we want to accomplish things’ and ‘do we want an issue’….Past Memorial Day, it is very hard to see how you get anything done.”
Steve Elmendorf, senior aide to former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D., Missouri), on the time constraints facing the current Congress.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
