Dems still hold advantage in down-ballot races
With all the attention on the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination contest, it’s easy to forget that many contests for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House and governorships are gearing up. The good news for Democrats is that they continue to show a strong edge over the GOP at each of the three contest levels.
Governors: There are 11 gubernatorial contests this year, featuring six seats held by Democrats and five by the GOP. All the action is in just three states: Washington, where Gov. Christine Gregoire is the lone vulnerable Democratic governor this year, Indiana, where first-term incumbent Mitch Daniels (R) is under fire, and Missouri, where first-term GOP Gov. Matt Blunt has decided not to seek reelection.
U.S. Senate: Republicans are defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. Democrats still stand to pick up Senate seats this year but just how many is unclear. So far, all analysts are giving the Democrats the open seat in Virginia where Sen. John Warner (R) is retiring.
The Senate battleground will likely be focused on five states: Alaska (where Sen. Ted Stevens looks to have a tough fight), Colorado (an open GOP seat), Minnesota (GOP Sen. Norm Coleman), New Hampshire (GOP Sen. John Sununu) and New Mexico (another open GOP seat). In addition to these five, all eyes are also on Maine (GOP Sen. Susan Collins) and Oregon (GOP Sen. Gordon Smith)
U.S. House: As of today, filing deadlines for U.S. House races have passed in 21 states. A look at the top 12 most competitive races suggests that the GOP’s main problem this cycle (besides the national mood, an unpopular president, an unpopular war, the housing crisis, gas prices and poor fundraising totals) remains the number of open seats they’ll have to defend in November.
Among the most vulnerable GOP open seats are: Arizona’s 1st district, New Jersey’s 3rd and 7th districts, New Mexico’s 1st, Ohio’s 15th and 16th, Illinois’s 11th and 14th, New York’s 25th and 26th, and Virginia’s 11th.
While eyes are on several Democratic House incumbents, the only one so far to be ranked highly vulnerable is Rep. Nick Lampson in Texas’s 22nd district.
Pennsylvania primary – 18 days out and guessing
With just less than three weeks to go until the April 22nd Presidential primary in Pennsylvania, a new batch of polls show a wide range of results, from Sen. Hillary Clinton ahead of Sen. Barack Obama by 12 points (KDKA-TV/Survey USA) to Obama leading Clinton by two point (Public Policy Polling). In the middle are a Rasmussen Reports poll with Clinton leading 47% to 42% and an Insider Advantage poll with a virtual tie at Clinton 45%, Obama 43%. Nationally, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has Obama leading Clinton 46% to 43%.
How high can it go?
According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, a record 81% of respondents say that the country is “on the wrong track,” the highest number ever since the poll began asking the “right track/wrong track” question. Further, 75% say that the country is worse off than it was just five years ago.
Now the Dems have one of their own
Given the recent rise in high profile GOP intra-party primary fights, it’s about time the Democrats had one of their own. This week, New Jersey Rep. Robert Andrews (D., 1st District) announced his intention to challenge incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary.
Lautenberg, 84 years old, is now in his fourth term in the Senate and won reelection in 2002 with 54% of the vote. Andrews, 50, is in his ninth term in the House.
Andrews has long aspired to higher office, losing two previous bids for his party’s gubernatorial nomination. He had also hoped to be appointed to the state’s vacant Senate seat in 2005 but that went to fellow Democratic Rep. Bob Menendez.
While most analysts think this will be another uphill battle for Andrews, some note that he is already hammering a “change” message and suggest that Lautenberg’s age may become more than a subtle background issue.
The bottom line is that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will skip through the general election in the absence of any high profile GOP candidates this time around.
Political Observations of the Week:
“He’s over there arguing about who should get into NATO, and the American people are focused on what’s in their pocketbooks. He has talked about the economy, but it is not viewed as being a satisfactory response. Unfortunately, the lasting image is of not knowing of $4-a-gallon gas.”
Ken Duberstein, former Chief of Staff to President Reagan, on President Bush’s current situation.
“He sort of reaches out to conservatives on Monday and evidently feels bad about it and slaps ‘em on Tuesday.”
David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union, on the continuing rift between Sen. John McCain and the conservative activist wing of the GOP.
“There’s the potential here to change American politics for a while. Under-35 voters are just so overwhelmingly Democrats. Getting them registered is a simple, important, not-easy part of that – and Obama can.”
Jim Jordan, veteran Democratic strategist.
“Having run for president myself, nobody tells you when to get in, and nobody tells you when to get out.”
Democratic Party Chair Howard Dean.
“The establishment, the power structure, the Karl Roves, are losing control of the process. There’s a new center of power developing.”
Richard Viguerie, a founder of the modern conservative movement, on the power of the Internet in American politics.
“The problem is not that she exaggerated her record; the problem is she exaggerated her record and she’s Hillary Clinton.”
Hank Sheinkopf, Democratic political consultant.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
