Bunk! Don’t you believe it!
With the next contest in the Democratic presidential nomination race still a month away (the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary), a rather static dynamic has settled into the contest. Analysts are still talking about Sen. Barack Obama’s pastor, Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Bosnia trip, and those all-important “Superdelegates.” But it’s hard to believe that Sen. Obama’s speech on race was delivered just eight days ago. Given the fact that nothing has fundamentally changed about this race for weeks, it seems more like a month has gone by since we heard “A More Perfect Union.” So it’s little wonder that the somewhat sensational findings of two new national polls are being over-examined for hints about what may happen come November.
Both the new Gallup Poll and the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll out this week suggest that approximately 20% of Clinton supporters could support Sen. John McCain in the general election should Obama win the Democratic nomination. Likewise, an equal share of Obama supporters say that they could be voting for McCain come November should Clinton be the Democratic nominee.
Already cable news shows, op-ed pieces and Internet blogs are filled with stories about the “schism” in the Democratic Party and how it will hurt them come the fall. And more than one GOP analyst is already on record suggesting that the GOP may be able to count on about a quarter of the national Democratic vote crossing over to vote for McCain in November. And of course, these mythical voters already have a label – “McCain Democrats.”
While this must give Republicans hope that all is not lost, it’s a bit premature to say the least. Putting aside a mountain of conjecture, what these polls in fact show is a snapshot of what respondents are thinking today, not what they’ll be thinking seven months from now.
And what these surveys tell us today is simply that a sizable chunk of both the Clinton and Obama camps are not only ardent supporters of their respective candidates, they are rabid supporters. And, they are so angered at the thought of their camp losing the nomination that they would “cross the aisle” and vote for Sen. McCain before they’d vote for their current intra-party opponent. And that’s a far cry from suggesting that the GOP can count on some “rear guard” laying dormant in the Democratic Party.
Now, if those same poll numbers still show up in September or October, after Democrats have their nominee and after the party and its surrogates have spent tens of millions of dollars “defining” John McCain, then Democrats should be worried. Very worried.
If you enjoyed the Florida 2000 recount………
According to reporting by Politico.com, anecdotal evidence from this year’s primary elections suggests that November could see a “turnout tsunami” of voters. Back on February 5th’s “Super Tuesday,” 15 states saw record voter turnout. And it wasn’t just driven by the Democratic contest. In fact, 11 of those states set GOP turnout records as well.
Of course, the flip side to this surge of electoral participation is that many states are already anticipating that the increased volume of voters will yield a tsunami of problems when it comes to vote counting. So if the presidential race is close, be prepared for a very long night, and multiple replays of Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004.
A unwelcome trend for the GOP
Just days after the news that there would be a serious GOP primary fight for the sole House seat of Alaska comes word that yet another Republican House member suddenly has an intra-party challenge.
Rep. Marsha Blackburn, three-term Congresswoman from Tennessee’s 7th District, holds a safe GOP House seat and last won reelection with more than 66% of the vote. But this year she’ll have to face what could be a spirited primary challenge from Tom Leatherwood, the Shelby County Registrar. In somewhat personal terms, Leatherwood has suggested that incumbent Republicans like Blackburn are responsible for the party’s loss of power in Washington.
Given that the GOP’s House prospects are clearly on the ropes this year, they can surely do without primary battles like these that will not change the overall balance of power but will eat up campaign cash that could be put to better use.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Most of us can’t wait to get to 2010.”
Dan Mattoon, former deputy chair of the National Republican congressional Committee, on GOP resignation that 2008 won’t be a good year for their party.
“Most people think of politics as changing from the grass roots up. It doesn’t. It changes from the top, from presidential races on down.”
Mark Gersh, veteran Democratic elections analyst, suggesting that this year’s presidential contest could have far reaching consequences on the “down ballot” races.
“It ain’t a match made in heaven anymore.”
Donna Brazile, veteran Democratic strategist, on the thought of a Clinton/Obama “dream ticket.”
_____________________________________________________
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
