It’s always what you don’t know……
Former New York Gov. Elliot Spitzer’s fall from power last week very nearly set a new land speed record in American politics. Informed he was under investigation on a Friday, he outs himself the following Monday and resigns seven days later. And aside from a handful of investigators and FBI agents, nobody saw this coming. Just another stark reminder that in the world of politics, unseen events are a politician’s worst nightmare.
Which brings us to the unending race for the Democratic presidential nomination and the unseen dangers lurking in the remaining 30-plus-days until the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd.
The next four weeks will not take place in a vacuum. In just the first four days of this week we’ve already witnessed panic in global financial markets, the Bear Stearns buyout, the fifth anniversary of the start of the Iraq War, Sen. John McCain’s much ballyhooed trip there (and his big gaffe), a new Bin Laden tape, and, of course, Sen. Barack Obama’s speech on race.
While most commentators have branded the speech terrific and thoughtful, let’s not forget that it first and foremost was a direct and hurried response by his campaign in reaction to its being blindsided by the appearance of excerpts of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s sermons popping up unexpectedly all over the Internet.
Putting aside the question of how well Obama insulated himself against the outrageous opinions of his pastor, the fact that the tapes appearance threw the Obama camp into a panic is exactly the rationale for Sen. Hillary Clinton remaining in this race all the way until August in Denver. Yes, I know you’re saying ‘She can’t win. She’ll never get the delegates!’ But it’s the fuel from unforeseen events that her camp is counting on the most, with the assumption that the fallout from those events will reshape the dynamics of the campaign (re bringing it all back to the question that drove the race through 2007 – “electability”).
The bottom line for this, the first big pre-Pennsylvania shakeup of the race, is: Did Sen. Obama’s attempt to insulate himself against any as-yet-unearthed sermon tapes from the Rev. Wright work? Well, he’ll now forever be just one more new YouTube moment away from having to hash over the issue all over again. And what happens if someone from the congregation remembers that he was indeed in the church during one of Wright’s rants? All we know for sure so far is in the following story.
Clinton Pennsylvania numbers jump
This week saw the release of three separate polls showing Sen. Clinton building on her lead over Sen. Obama in the Keystone State.
First up, the venerable Quinnipiac University poll shows Clinton leading Obama among likely primary voters by 12 points, 53% to 41%.
Second, the Franklin and Marshall College Poll has the race at Clinton 51%, Obama 35%. That’s up from their February results of Clinton 44%, Obama 35%.
And finally, there’s the Public Policy Polling survey which has it Clinton 56%, Obama 30%.
Add in the new national Gallup Poll, which has Clinton back in the national lead over Obama by seven points, and you can understand the Clinton camp’s new energy.
And the hits just keep coming….
Two more political developments this week add further woe to the House GOP and their outlook as a party this coming November. First, Rep. Tom Reynolds (New York/26th Congressional District) has decided to call it quits and retire from office. Reynolds, the former Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee from 2003 to 2007, becomes the 29th House Republican to retire this year. His seat leans Republican but will undoubtedly see a competitive race this year, considering that Democrats came close there last time.
Second, in Alaska, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell has decided to enter the GOP congressional primary against the state’s sole Congressman, Rep. Don Young, who has held the seat since 1973. Talk about moving against a political icon. What’s more, Parnell was strongly endorsed in the move by GOP Gov. Sarah Palin. While this story says a lot about the state of the GOP in Alaska (where investigations abound), it also suggests that the political atmosphere of 2008 is being driven by the voting public’s demands for “change.”
Political Observations of the Week:
“For the first time, some Republicans are rethinking Hillary as their first choice [for the Democratic nominee]…..He’s not the Tiger Woods of politics.”
Alex Castellanos, veteran GOP media consultant, on Obama and the Rev. Wright story.
“Superdelegates tend to blow with the wind, and we don’t know which way the wind is blowing.”
Rep. Jim Cooper (D., Tennessee)
“The math is against them. The environment is against them. The money is against them. This is one of those cycles that if you’re a Republican strategist, you just want to go into the bomb shelter.”
Stu Rothenberg, veteran political analyst.
“I had a very simple formula: If it affected the life of a U.S. citizen, you woke the president. At 3 o’clock in the morning, unless there is a nuclear holocaust coming, there is not much the president has to decide. What you are doing is starting to put into gear the response of the U.S. government on behalf of the president, not necessarily by the president.”
Ken Duberstein, former chief of staff to President Reagan
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
