Warning signs on the GOP’s Road to November
Last Saturday the GOP lost their hold on Illinois’ 14th Congressional District in a special election upset, as a first-time Democratic candidate, Bill Foster, defeated Republican Jim Oberweiss by a vote of 52% to 48%. Why is this significant? Let’s count the ways.
First, let’s understand that the 14th is solid GOP territory. Except for a two-year period (1975-1977), it has been held by the GOP since 1934. Its’ most recent occupant, former House Speaker Denny Hastert, held the seat for 11 terms, typically enjoying reelection every two years with more than 60% of the vote. President George W. Bush easily won the 14th in 2000 and 2004, taking it by 22 points in the latter. Given all this, what happened on Saturday?
The immediate GOP response was to blame the candidate, suggesting that Oberweiss, who was endorsed by Hastert, was a poor candidate who had already lost three prior attempts at elective office. Given reports that Oberweiss was not loved by the local GOP organization, there may be some traction for this argument. But there are plenty of poor candidates who are buttressed by a district’s political identity and plenty of cash.
There was plenty of cash here. Oberweiss spent more than $2.3 million of his own money while the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $1.2 million here in the last weeks of the race, an unheard-of-sum for a technically “safe” GOP district. And the Democrats spent as well, with Foster, a wealthy research scientist, spending about $1.8 million of his own money and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropping about $1 million in the district once they saw the race tightening.
As for the Democrats, they argue that it was largely Foster’s “Democrat for Change” message that made the difference, noting that the candidate focused on the economy, the war in Iraq, and the GOP opposition to expanding the State children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).
The Fallout for the GOP: First, this loss was a big psychological defeat for a party already on the ropes from a long list of factors: their 2006 loss of Congress, an unpopular President, his unpopular war, the housing crisis, the recession, soaring gas prices, etc. Now, they’ve lost a safe GOP district that used to belong to their former Speaker.
But the ramifications of a loss like this are much bigger. It feeds into the image of the party as a loser. This is just one more story added to the laundry list that makes it harder to keep spirits up among the party’s donor base and to get party activists roused for the critical ground game in November.
And perhaps most important, the fact that the NRCC spent over $1 million in a safe district sends a bit of a chill down the spines of GOP operatives everywhere. Because they know there are almost 30 other open GOP seats across the country that are now on Democratic radars, and there will never be enough money to spend to try and save all of them.
The Upside for the Democrats: Again, first and foremost the outcome of Saturday’s contest is a big psychological up-tick for Democrats. Already perceived as “on a roll” toward November, they took “the Speaker’s seat.” It’s yet another positive development to encourage their donor base and their ground game come the fall. Further, it was a successful test case for the SCHIP issue, something that Democrats have been salivating over in terms of its voter saliency since Bush made so much of his veto of the planned expansion of the program last year.
A footnote: A little-noticed development down in Louisiana on Saturday adds further credence to Democratic hopes for the fall. In a special election to fill the 6th Congressional District seat of former GOP Rep. Richard Baker (he resigned in February), neither party saw a candidate reach the 50% mark, meaning that both Democrats and Republicans will be in runoffs to determine eventual nominees. But what caught the eye of political analysts was the fact that Democratic turnout in the 6th on Saturday was significantly higher than GOP turnout. And this is another Republican district. At least one interpretation is that the district has seen a big influx of former New Orleans residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina and that the district may have lost its GOP edge.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Symbolically, losing Hastert’s seat is like the toppling of the Saddam statue in Baghdad for Republicans.”
Anonymous House GOP staffer.
“She hasn’t managed anything as complex as this before: that’s the problem with Senators.”
James Thurber, political scientist, American University, suggesting that the problems Sen. Clinton is experiencing with her national campaign are endemic to U.S. Senators running for President.
“Two things develop the more time you spend here. One is a mind-set that we did it this way before, we should do it this way again, and I think that’s real burden. More importantly….the longer you are here, you take on enemies. And these enemies don’t forget.”
Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D., South Dakota), on the U.S. Senate.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
