All aboard the Stimulus Package Express
When a Republican White House joins hands with a Democratic-led Congress at the start of an election year and both announce plans to take immediate action, you know that the current political stakes for each have suddenly dovetailed. With the word “recession” seeping quickly into the popular lexicon and the popularity ratings of both President Bush and the institution of Congress remaining at all-time lows, political self-interest is its own stimulus. History is replete with examples of warring enemies joining forces temporarily to face a common, bigger threat. Washington politics is no different.
While we can all debate the efficacy of the “stimulus package” approach to today’s economic crisis, at its root it is a government response that both answers and echoes the growing popular anger: “Do something, anything, and do it now!”
Although the President has signaled that now is not the time for a debate about tax policy (specifically the ongoing question of whether or not to extend his tax breaks that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2010), you can be sure that there will be those Republicans, especially in the House, who will not gladly join hands and go quietly once negotiations begin on what exactly will go into this stimulus “package.”
Since losing the majority control of Congress, these economic conservatives have argued that in order to regain the support of their base, they have to rein in government spending. That’s an issue the GOP intends to use against Democrats during this election year. Now, they are being asked by a lame-duck President to put those concerns aside “one more time” in order to join him in what will certainly be one of the more applause-friendly anchors of his last State of the Union speech on January 28th.
Republican opponents of the stimulus plan ought to take a breath and a hint from some recent political developments. First, tough talk about the souring economy doesn’t appeal to voters – not even GOP voters. Look no further than Sen. John McCain’s tough love talk to Michigan voters that they should wave goodbye to their old jobs forever. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s vow to fight to restore those jobs was a much more appealing message.
Second, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson’s melancholy stump speech warning of the dangers of ignoring the overburdened Social Security system (although prescient) goes over like a led balloon no matter where he peddles that message. Boomers do not want to hear that talk now.
Third, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, still waiting for a win, seems like the odd-man-out again now that his friend the President has endorsed the stimulus route. Just this week Rudy was still calling the approach “nanny government” and “a giveaway program.”
Finally, a new survey released this week by Democracy Corps suggests yet another shift in public opinion that benefits the Democrats over the GOP, this time on tax policy. Although it is by a Democratic polling firm, this time the pollsters went in to 65 Congressional districts considered by both parties to be the House battleground this November. Polling 25 Democratic districts and 40 GOP districts they found that (despite the GOP leaning sample) respondents had more faith in the Democrats handling tax policy. And their number one priority was to see changes to the tax code that helped the middle class above all.
The bottom line – voters are in no mood for a debate on tax policy changes coming three years from now. They just want the government to do something today.
Will Rudy become the Fourth Horseman of the GOP sweepstakes?
Rudy Giuliani’s Florida gambit seems to be setting him up to become the Rosie Ruiz of GOP presidential politics. If the name rings a bell, Ruiz was the Boston Marathon runner who joined the race late (and apparently too close to the finish line) to pull out a win back in 1980.
After ignoring Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina, Rudy is “all in” for the Florida primary on January 29th. His bet has always been that a win there will carry him into the big state primaries on February 5th where his momentum will help him run the board.
Unfortunately for his campaign, this year’s race reinforces the old adage that a candidate is only in the news if he/she is a winner or surrounded by controversy. Sadly for the Giuliani camp, they’ve seen neither for weeks now and there’s only so much room in the voters’ field of vision that is already cluttered with visions of McCain, Huckabee and Romney.
If Rudy does not place first in Florida (and he has fallen in recent polls), he may still win a couple big states on Super Tuesday, but it’s increasingly likely that so will the other three GOP frontrunners. Which means the GOP race may go well into March before they pick a nominee.
Political Observations of the Week:
“This is a political year, so my guess is we’ll have a conciliatory start and a conciliatory finish and the middle won’t be all that good.”
Rep. Roy Blunt (R., Missouri), on the current wave of bipartisanship in Washington.
“Republican candidates have been giving stump speeches. And they need to move to the vision speech. There is a real concern that all the GOP candidates are speaking to too narrow a slice [of the electorate].”
Alex Vogel, GOP consultant.
“The plan of every candidate is to be riding on a wave of momentum. The momentum is what carries you through on February 5.”
Steve Schmidt, campaign adviser to the McCain campaign.
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John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
