The 2008 Presidential Race: Lessons from Iowa

Now that the 2008 Iowa Caucuses have come and gone, all political eyes are on Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. While it’s always dangerous to read too much into the results of either of these contests, the Iowa results do suggest that there’s been a shift in the dynamics of the race that will likely have reverberations far beyond Des Moines.

First, the issue paradigm – dominated for months by the war in Iraq and the litany of ineptitudes of the Bush Administration – has shifted dramatically. Economic concerns now dominate the issue environment in both the Democratic and Republican contests and populist rhetoric rules. In fact, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s message these last few weeks has been sounding a lot like second-place Democratic finisher John Edwards’ basic stump speech. While Edwards rails against “corporate greed” and “big oil,” Huckabee now talks almost exclusively about the growing economic anxiety across the country brought on by the housing crisis and rising gasoline and health care costs. He positions himself as doing battle with “Wall Street” and all that is wrong in Washington.

This shift in issues has not been lost on the other candidates. Sen. Hillary Clinton’s current television spots in New Hampshire target President Bush for failing to address the subprime mortgage crisis while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been talking a lot about the need to expand health care coverage for the uninsured.

Second, Sen. Barack Obama’s “change” argument not only has traction, it appears to have shifted the dynamics of the Democratic contest to a “generational” divide. Obama is the candidate of young voters. About 57% of the Obama vote in Iowa came from those aged 17 to 29. Second, Obama took 35% of the women’s vote in Iowa, with only 30% going to Clinton.

This is not good news for the Clinton camp. While it is far too early to count Clinton out, even if she were to lose Hampshire, the old argument about her “inevitability” has been put on hold, at least for the next month. With Obama walking into the Granite State with momentum at his back, the question becomes one of how she decides to counter his “change” argument. Just talking about her “thirty-five years of experience” just doesn’t cut it anymore. And her new challenge is how to win over those young voters.

Third, the Evangelical Christian part of the GOP base is alive and well. After a year in which many argued they may just sit this election out, they have found their candidate in the television-friendly, pro-life, former Baptist minister Mike Huckabee. While they may not play as great a role in the New Hampshire contest, look out for their impact in South Carolina and points south.

And it is interesting to note that in years past these same Evangelical Christians have thrown their votes and grass roots activism to candidates such as Ronald Reagan, George Bush I and George Bush II. Those were all solid conservatives but also very much establishment figures who (particularly in the case of the latter two) were very at home in the halls of corporate America. If Iowa is an indicator, this time around the Evangelicals may be throwing in their lot with a candidate who is very comfortable with throwing stones at the economic establishment.

Political Observations of the Week:

“There’s no harm in going another five days.”

Tom Rath, veteran GOP operative in New Hampshire, suggesting that despite poor showings in Iowa, the whole GOP field should stick it out through his state’s primary next week.

“Ross Perot went insane in the middle of his presidential campaign and still got 20% of the popular vote, so there is clearly a market for a third-party candidate.”

Veteran GOP operative Dan Schnur, on a possible presidential run from New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg.
“The bounce and free media you get from early victories, history shows, is very important. Look, when you win, the money comes in.”

Sen. John McCain (R., Arizona)