With time running out in the hyper-accelerated primary calendar, it won’t be easy for either Republicans or Democrats to alter the existing dynamic in their presidential campaigns.
Slouching Towards Dixville Notch. There are now just 115 days remaining before the Iowa caucuses in January. And there are just 137 days until February 5, when more than 20 states will hold their presidential primaries on the most super “Super Tuesday” of all time.
Factor in the holidays in November and Christmas (in terms of voters traveling and celebrating and not carrying a wit about politics) and you see quickly that there’s just not much time left for anyone who thinks he (or she) can change the dynamic of the 2008 presidential race.
On the Democratic side, that dynamic is simple: New York Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the big favorite for the Democratic nomination. So big, that one wonders just what Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards can do over the next three months that will somehow throw her off her stride. According to some polls, Edwards retains a small lead in Iowa. Were he to win, that buzz could rattle Clinton, but really, for how long? Until she wins New Hampshire, then cruises into South Carolina and wraps it up Feb. 5?
As for Obama, most political reporters are waiting for him to really engage Clinton in something that could pass for a nasty fight. As with Arizona Sen. John McCain on the GOP side, who travels the country not campaigning for president but rather trying to gin up support for the war in Iraq, Obama is running, but not really campaigning. Yes, he makes appearances and gives great optimistic speeches and attracts celebrities like Oprah to his side and raises lots of cash, but when will he make his move on the frontrunner? And what sort of move could it be?
On the GOP side, the dynamic is likewise fixed but somewhat less believable. The polls say that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner, although by a slimmer margin than three months ago. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is a close second in national polls, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s largely a cipher nationally, leads both Rudy and Fred where it’s supposed to count – in Iowa and New Hampshire. History would say that most candidates would rather be leading in those two states right now than in the national polls.
Why? Because as one-time Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush proclaimed in the midst of the 1988 race, “I’ve got ‘Big Mo!’” Meaning he had finally hit his stride in the race and, having won primaries, now had the momentum that would carry him to more primary victories and eventually, the nomination.
Anyone winning both Iowa and New Hampshire would have “Big Mo” cruising into the South Carolina primary and then the Feb. 5 free-for-all. But Rudy’s people think they can come in second or third in Iowa and New Hampshire and still win a bunch of the big states up for grabs Feb. 5, where the well-known Giuliani is currently leading. But a Romney win in both Iowa and New Hampshire would put a very big media spotlight on the former governor for the next three weeks. And that’s the sort of national attention money can’t buy.
For both parties, the problem of the two-year-long-campaign is already coming home to roost. It’s one thing if you’re in the spring of 2008 with a month of primaries to go and the second-place contender still has a chance to trip the frontrunner. But that’s not going to happen. By February 5, 2008 it’s all over.
These folks have already been running for nine months and the frontrunners have been frontrunners for at least five of those months. That means this race has created an ingrained image in the minds of the people who have been paying attention and in the minds of the political media covering the race.
Yes, it’s true that in American politics, things can change overnight and a week can be an eternity. But that assumes something happens during the week to change the way voters look at things.
As of now (and for the foreseeable future), it’s the Hillary and Rudy show. Like it or not.
Family time, here we come….. Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL) is expected to announce this week that he will not seek reelection. Weller’s announcement follows Rep. Jim Ramstad’s (R-MN) announcement last week that he too, was not going to run for reelection.
For those keeping count, there are now nine Republican House incumbents who will not run for reelection next year. Several of them, like Ramstad and Weller, occupy competitive districts where Democrats are sure to work to field good candidates in the hopes of further solidifying their House majority party status.
As of now, no House Democrat has announced plans to retire next year.
Political Observations of the Week:
“If you don’t represent real change, you just gave away the 2008 election.”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich chastising the GOP 2008 presidential contenders for not putting the “change” message at the forefront of their campaigns.
“The dilemma candidates now face is that if you tell the truth about the hard choices and where you stand, you might not get elected.”
Former presidential adviser David Gergen, on the story that presidential contender Fred Thompson plans to address the subject of entitlement programs on the campaign trail.
“This is the hardest time to stay focused, because there’s nothing for us to win right now. We’ve got to stay disciplined.”
Veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist, working for the Romney for President campaign.
This Date in American Political History:
1981 – Sandra Day O’Connor becomes first female Supreme Court Justice.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
