Idaho Senator Larry Craig is the most recent and currently the most visible problem for the Republican Party, but by no means the only one.
The GOP’s ’08 Senate problems. For Democrats, news that embattled Idaho Sen. Larry Craig (R) may decide to try and stay on in the U.S. Senate is the gift that keeps on giving. (In the most recent turn, Craig announced last week that, in fact, he will resign at the end of this month.) For the GOP, the Craig issue could spell the beginning of a year-long nightmare.
When it comes to the 2008 Senate races, the GOP’s window of opportunity has yet to open. Even by a crack. The party simply has too many seats to defend next year in a worsening national political climate, and news events over the past week have added to their gloom.
Beyond the Larry Craig debacle, Virginia Sen. John Warner (R) has announced that he will not run for reelection next year. That leaves an open Virginia Senate seat and a still extremely popular former Democratic Governor – wealthy businessman Mark Warner (no relation to the Senator) – as the perceived front-runner, although he has yet to formally declare his intentions. Warner is so popular in retirement that political analysts are already marveling at the idea that the traditional GOP bastion of Virginia could begin 2009 with two sitting Democratic U.S. senators in office.
Looking quickly over the national map, there are three more big problems for the Republican Party. First, there’s the open seat in Colorado where Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring and popular second district Rep. Mark Udall (D) is running and already seen as the front-runner. This state, like Virginia, has been trending Democratic over the past few election cycles.
Next, Minnesota’s Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign and will face either wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi or former comedian and national radio show host Al Franken. The latter has surprised many observers in the state with his stump skills and outstanding early fund raising totals.
If Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel decides not to seek reelection, former Democratic Gov. and U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey is reportedly poised to move back from New York City, where he currently heads the New School, and enter the race as a heavy favorite. Kerrey, a decorated Vietnam War vet who rather decidedly turned his back on politics when he left the Senate, is now talking about the race as his “patriotic duty,” although he will not challenge his friend and fellow Vietnam vet, Hagel.
After those three races there is another tier of “potential” problems for the GOP, two in the northeast – Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and John Sununu of New Hampshire – and the third, Sen. Gordon Smith in Oregon. Both Smith and Collins have been particularly critical of the Bush Administration on the Iraq war., but they and Sununu are in states where anti-war sentiments are running strong.
In Maine, Democrats have candidate Rep. Tom Allen in the race, a veteran politician with a strong base of support. In the other two states the Democratic fields are wide but still unclear, although former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen could be a heavy favorite in a Sununu rematch.
Behind these problematic states, there’s another tier of GOP seats that have big question marks over them. These shouldn’t be in play, but…Consider Sen. Ted Stevens in Alaska. The FBI raided his home in an investigation that appears to be only in its early stages. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky has been under constant assault both from ads posted by MoveOn.Org and from organized labor. New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici, meanwhile, may have to talk about reports that he had a role in the firing of a U.S. Attorney in his state. And finally, what if Larry Craig runs for reelection in Idaho?
Tie it all up in a bow for the Democrats. The election is still more than a year away and a lot can happen between then and now, but as of today the stage is set for more Democratic gains in the U.S. Senate come November 2008.
Political Observations of the Week:
“It simply defies reality. You can’t make this up even if you are heavily medicated. The American people heard from Larry Craig that he would resign and using the word ‘intent’ as a back door doesn’t work with them.”
Anonymous GOP Senate aide, on reports that Idaho Sen. Larry Craig may change his mind about leaving the Senate on September 30th.
“It’s like changing a tire on a car going 80 miles an hour.”
Kurt Browning, Florida Secretary of State, on the preparations that must be made to hold the state’s presidential primary on January 29, 40 days earlier than usual.
“Why the hurry? Why not take a little longer to think this over? If he wants to wait until January or February, that would be ideal.”
GOP Presidential contender Mitt Romney, suggesting in jest that former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson should take more time to consider entering the race.
“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot.”
Anonymous GOP operative.
“The state of the Republican Party is worse than any time since Watergate, and arguably this is worse than Watergate, because that was about an event, whereas this may reflect a trend.”
Veteran GOP strategist Vin Weber, on the state of his party.
This Date in American Political History:
1813 – The Troy Post newspaper in Troy, New York, reports on use of term “Uncle Sam” by troops during War of 1812 to refer to the United States government. The phrase soon spread and stuck.
1977 –President Jimmy Carter transfers control of the Panama Canal to Panama.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
