Reading the increasingly unfavorable political tea leaves, a growing number of Republican legislators are deciding not to seek reelection.
How many more? So far we’ve seen four House Republicans announce this summer that they won’t be running for reelection next year: Former House Speaker Denny Hastert of Illinois, Rep. Ray LaHood, also of Illinois, Ohio’s Rep. Deb Pryce and Mississippi’s Chip Pickering. Democrats, pointing to 1995-96, expect many more GOP members to follow suit.
Following the GOP takeover of the House in the 1994 election, 28 House Democrats passed on seeking reelection in 1996. It was clear to many that there was little chance of regaining the majority that year and, let’s face it, being reduced to minority party status, after you’ve enjoyed majority party status, isn’t a lot of fun.
While Republicans downplay chances that we’ll see a repeat of the Democratic exodus, independent analysts think that what we’ve seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Among those mentioned as possible retirees are Reps. Don Young of Alaska, Ralph Regula of Ohio, Barbara Cubin of Wyoming and Rick Renzi in Arizona. Cubin had an unusually tight race in 2006 while Renzi and Young are currently the subjects of different investigations.
In the Senate, Colorado’s Wayne Allard will not seek reelection, choosing instead to honor his pledge to serve only two terms. Other Senate Republicans said to be considering retirement include Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel (who some suggest will either run for President or get out of electoral politics for good), Thad Cochran of Mississippi, John Warner of Virginia, and Larry Craig of Idaho.
When Congress returns from the summer recess next month, many observers believe we’ll see another rush to the exits. With an unpopular war still ongoing (and with no end in sight), an array of national issues slanted against the GOP (questions about health care costs, the housing slump, economic jitters, an unpopular President, etc.), and early financial reports showing Democratic incumbents building significant campaign war chests, analysts agree that it’s just going to be much more difficult to run for office as a Republican next year.
We’ll soon see if what members of the House and Senate heard from constituents back home during the break pushes any more of them toward an early decision.
Flash! Rube Goldberg to design 2008 Presidential Primary season! Well, it may as well be true. Questions about electability, who is the real “change” candidate, and whether “change” trumps “experience” are simply going to be overshadowed by a ridiculously short and hyper-paced primary season that may or may not begin this December.
In the latest development, the Michigan Senate has voted to move that state’s presidential primary to January 15. It’s assumed the bill will pass the state House and be signed into law by the Democratic Governor. This follows Florida’s decision to move its primary up to January 29, which is also the date for the South Carolina Democratic primary. The GOP contest in that state has already moved up to January 19. All of these schedule changes represent attempts by these states to have some individual impact on the presidential race before the Mega Super Tuesday on February 5, which will see 20 state primaries occurring on the same day.
These moves of course set in motion other dominoes that will push the New Hampshire primary back to January 8 (by law New Hampshire must hold its primary at least a week before any other state) and may still push the Iowa caucuses to the end of this coming December. But that would violate Democratic rules that say the 2008 caucuses and primaries have to be held in 2008, which means the Iowa legislature would have to rewrite its law to allow for a caucus between the first and eighth of January.
Just what Iowans need — candidates knocking on their doors and interrupting Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s celebrations. It’s sure to put them all in a unique mood as they cast their ballots.
Political Observations of the Week:
“These are Democrats. And they’re really scared to death that Hillary will be the nominee, because they think in a place like North Carolina, you know…And so I said, ‘Would Obama be any better?’ They said, yeah, Obama would be better. Now isn’t that interesting? These guys are hard-nosed pols from North Carolina. These folks are 12- and 15-year veterans of the North Carolina
legislature.”
Former Massachusetts Gov. and 1988 Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis, on his recent trip to speak to the Council of State Legislatures.
“There’s a limited time period in which to brand the new Congress. The window will go into the fall, but by early next year, it will be closed.”
Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, on a new series of television spots the committee launched last week, which seek to define the current Congress for voters long before they are subject to next year’s onslaught of multi-contest ads.
“I’ve always said the only thing I did is light him well. My job was filling up the space around the head. I didn’t make Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan made me.”
Michael Deaver (1938-2007), former member of the “troika” who ran the Reagan White House, speaking to the Los Angeles Times in 2001.
This Date in American Political History:
1814 – British troops burn the White House.
1912 –Alaskan Territory organized.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
