Huckabee’s second-place finish in the Ames Straw Poll attracted attention, but will it also attract votes in the caucuses that count?
Some recent political developments to contemplate during the Dog Days of summer:
“Romney Wins! So does Huckabee!” After spending lots of cash in the state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won last week’s Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, taking 31.5 percent of the vote. Second place went to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has very little money and a much smaller organization.
While Romney got the headlines, the bulk of the political coverage on the cable news shows and the Internet political sites focused on the underdog and his second-place finish against such great odds. The plain-spoken Huckabee can obviously connect with the conservative GOP base.
The questions now: Does Huckabee have any sort of chance in January at the caucuses, when the votes really mean something? Can he lure the voters who supported the other base conservative candidates in the race – like Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who finished third with 15.3 percent and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo who took fourth place with 13.7 percent? If almost 70 percent of Iowa GOP voters participating in the Straw Poll didn’t vote for front-runner Romney, where do they go in January?
“Rove leaves White House, Attacks Hillary!” Within hours of announcing his forthcoming resignation from the Bush Administration, political mastermind Karl Rove took to the Rush Limbaugh radio show to slam the Democratic presidential frontrunner, focusing on her “high negatives” in a number of national polls.
His actions quickly reminded everyone that Rove will be a player in next year’s race, if only behind the scenes, and may actually have helped Sen. Clinton by strengthening her perception as a true “liberal” among her party’s base, some of whom are still at odds with her over her initial vote to go to war in Iraq. The thinking of course is, “If Rove hates you, you must be okay.”
“Two GOP stars to leave House!” Two GOP stalwarts in the House, former House Speaker Denny Hastert of Illinois, and Rep. Deb Pryce of Ohio, both announced this week that they will not seek reelection in 2008.
Pryce barely hung on to her seat in last year’s race, winning by just 1,055 votes over popular Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, a Franklin County Commissioner. Kilroy now becomes the heavy favorite to pick up that seat next year and analysts have moved the district into the “Lean Democrat” column. Word that she will run has reportedly caused two big-name Republicans to pass on the open-seat contest.
Although Hastert’s seat has been in a solid GOP district for years, Democratic gains throughout Illinois in recent election cycles suggest that it will be the site of a competitive race next year.
“What about New Hampshire?” The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of GOP and Democratic voters in New Hampshire suggests that the two front runners for the upcoming presidential primary in that state, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, are solidifying their existing leads in their respective parties.
The latest numbers have Clinton at 37 percent compared with just 22 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and only 14 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
In the GOP race, Romney leads with 32 percent compared with 20 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and just 11 percent each for Nevada Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.
“Time is running out!” As of today, there are only 149 days remaining until the Iowa caucuses in January and there are only 171 days until the Mega Super Tuesday primary day on February 5th. Act accordingly.
Political Observations of the Week:
“Smart candidates should be telling activists in Iowa why they’re best able to carry states such as Ohio.”
Veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen, suggesting that the dominant theme in the presidential contest for both parties over the next few months will be the question of “electability.”
“In some ways, this 2008 primary season won’t be decided in the heartland or the swing states, but in Upper East Side apartments, Beverly Hills mansions, and Palm Beach villas.”
Massie Ritch, Center for Responsive Politics, highlighting the fact that most campaign contributions come from just 1 percent of all Americans and most of that cash comes from wealthy enclaves.
“Right now, the Bush administration is in a reactive mode. It is reacting to what happens in Iraq, to what Democrats do on the Hill. Strategic sense is always valuable, but it is less important if you are not pushing your own initiatives.”
George Edwards, presidential scholar, Texas A&M University.
“It’s like going out on a date. If you want to meet someone, you have to make an effort to talk to them. If they don’t show up, we feel a little bit neglected.”
Iowa GOP Chair Ray Hoffman, on the fact that Sen. John McCain, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Sen. Fred Thompson all skipped the GOP Ames Straw Poll last week.
“I can’t buy you – I don’t have the money. I can’t even rent you.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, in an Iowa stump speech, making a subtle reference to the money spent in the state by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, leading up to the GOP Ames Straw Poll.
This Date in American Political History:
1948 – Alger Hiss denies being a Communist agent.
1961 –Kennedy Administration establishes the Alliance for Progress.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.