The outcome of the Iowa GOP straw poll will matter, and the second and third-place finishes will matter a lot.
The Ames Effect. Contrary to the opinion held by most political observers back in June, this Saturday’s Ames, Iowa, GOP Straw Poll will indeed have an impact on the GOP presidential race. Yes, one can argue that it’s not a truly objective sampling of the GOP electorate there. After all, in order to vote, you have to pay the $35 entrance fee. And yes, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain are not participating. But former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is participating, and in a big way.
Romney, along with his family, has spent a lot of time in the state this year. He has the money to spend on early television in the state and his spots have been in heavy rotation these last few weeks. Also, his organization in the state has put a lot of time and effort into organizing voters for Saturday’s event. They are paying the entrance fee for participants and those attending the Romney camp’s event will be treated to fine food and entertainment. Add it all up and it should be enough of an effort to put the former Governor in first place. And that will mean some free national media attention over the next few days. Maybe even some high-profile “buzz” for the television-friendly candidate and his family.
The bigger question is who places second and third. If tradition holds, some second- and third-tier candidates will likely drop from the race altogether if they have a really poor showing in the poll. So watch to see how Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee perform. Both are strong conservatives who have been giving this contest their all, absent the type of money displayed by Romney.
The wild card, of course, will be Texas Cong. Ron Paul. Don’t be surprised if he scores some degree of an upset. Even a third-place showing would rally his hard-core GOP activist base supporters in other states.
And yes, veteran political observers everywhere just yearn for the type of upset that roiled the 1987 Ames Straw Poll. That year conservative televangelist Pat Robertson waded into the state, spent big, and came out on top with 1,293 votes. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was second with 958 and Vice President George H.W. Bush (the eventual 1988 GOP nominee) placed just third, with 864 votes.
Months later, in the 1988 Iowa caucuses, Bush was bested again, coming in third to Dole’s first-place finish and Robertson’s second-place showing. As veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen recalls, the ’87 straw poll was a debacle for the sitting Vice President and a foreshadowing of what was to come in the caucuses the following January.
Keep your eye on the Minnesota Senate race. Republicans nationally are becoming increasingly concerned about the fate of the Minnesota Senate seat held by Republican Norm Coleman. The latest polling numbers from a survey conducted by KSTP-TV/Survey USA found Coleman below the 50 percent mark against three potential Democratic nominees, including an unknown environmental activist.
Among the leading Democratic contenders for their party’s nomination next year, comedian Al Franken now trails Coleman by just seven points (49 percent-42 percent), a drastically different picture from just several months back, when Coleman had a 22-point lead over Franken. Coleman leads wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi, the other well-known Democrat in the race, by just six points, 48 percent-42 percent.
Political Observations of the Week:
“I can’t think of another presidential candidate in American history whose children didn’t support him.”
University of Virginia Political Scientist and veteran political prognosticator Larry Sabato, on the story that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s daughter had registered on a Facebook Web site supporting Sen. Barack Obama for president in ’08. As Sabato noted, even Ronald Reagan’s estranged children from a former marriage joined him on the campaign trail in 1980.
“I mean he’s gone from Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove in one week.”
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s foreign policy statements.
“Holds are good government.”
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R., Alabama), on the traditional right of any U.S. Senator to anonymously put a “hold” on any legislation or nomination, thus stopping it dead in its tracks. Some in the Senate now propose to make the “hold” public by putting the identity of the Senator initiating such a move in the Congressional Record.
This Date in American Political History:
1846 – Congress charters the Smithsonian Institution.
1949 –The nation’s military command is formally renamed the Department of Defense.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for more than a decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
