Gridlock prevails in Washington, with no sign of movement on Iraq or anything else, except the growing anger of American voters over the war and their declining confidence in the Democratic-controlled Congress.
Trapped. The title of the old Bob Dylan tune, “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” pretty much sums up the mood in Washington, D.C. in late July of 2007. There are now just two weeks remaining of “work days” before Congress leaves for its month-long summer recess. That means four weeks that will see the President either vacationing at his Crawford, Texas, ranch or making speeches in support of his “surge” strategy in Iraq. Meanwhile most members of the House and Senate will be back in their districts and states or on vacation somewhere.
A number of pundits this week have neatly summed up the impasse in Washington over what to do next about the Iraq war, noting that both sides, the Congress and the Bush Administration, are largely trapped by circumstance. With no “good” solution anywhere in sight, and no compromise agreement being considered, both sides are digging more deeply into their respective trenches.
Congress, operating under the weight of ever-growing public opposition to the war, is not about to give any indication that they are willing to give the President any more time — thus the attempted Senate vote this week to try and either coax more GOP votes to the Democratic side, or conversely, to “get the GOP on the record” as opposing any plan for troop withdrawal. The President, for his part, remains adamant that everyone wait for the September 15 assessment report from the commander of troops in Iraq.
The only slight change to the dynamic is that new polling shows the public continues to lose faith in the Democratic Congress, ranking it as far down in public esteem as the President. With people this angry, the war still raging, and August looming just days away, it’s hard to point to an upcoming event or person, political or not, that has a chance of changing this stagnant dynamic.
And if modern American politics has taught us anything, it is that August can be a very troublesome month. (More about that next week.)
Another one bites the dust. In case you missed it, the next GOP presidential debate will be one podium short. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore has dropped out of the race, citing an inability to raise the necessary funds to compete. He is reportedly contemplating running for statewide office again in Virginia, either in a second run for Governor or for the U.S. Senate seat of John Warner (R), if Warner decides to retire.
Reading the political tea leaves. As the wise man once said, “Follow the money.” Two recent reports suggest that the Democratic momentum that began with the 2006 mid-term elections hasn’t slowed down.
A study of second quarter fundraising reports filed by U.S. House candidates conducted recently by SwingStateProject.com found that in competitive races, Democratic challengers had out-raised GOP incumbents in 12 districts: California 4 and 26, Connecticut 4, Indiana 3, Maryland 1 and 6, Michigan 7, Missouri 6, New York 29, Ohio 2 and 16 and Washington 8.
On the flip side, there were only two competitive districts in which GOP challengers out-raised Democratic incumbents: Kansas 2 and New York 19.
At the presidential campaign level, Democratic contenders also led Republicans in terms of money raised and cash on hand as of June 30. The leader of the Democratic presidential pack in terms of most cash on hand was New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with $45.2 million. Second place went to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama with $36.3 million, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with $13.3 million.
On the GOP side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was in first place in terms of cash on hand, totaling $18.3 million as of June 30. Second place went to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with $12.1 million, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain with just $3.2 million (and $1.8 million in debt).
Political Observations of the Week:
“This is gridlock compounded.”
Stephen Hess, presidential scholar, on the impasse between President Bush and the Democratic Congress over the war in Iraq.
“The town is gridlocked. There is no give at the White House or on the Hill. The Senate doesn’t have 60 votes to do anything. So, at least for the foreseeable future, which may be September, the only result is stalemate.”
Ken Duberstein, former Chief of Staff to President Ronald Reagan.
“I guess I’m like any other political figure – everybody wants to be loved.”
President George Bush, during last week’s press conference.
“In September, when people get off vacation and start focusing on politics, I will get traction, then support, and then my fundraising increases a little bit.”
Sen. John McCain (R., Arizona), on how his presidential campaign will turn around.
“The problem with political consulting is you don’t need a license or a degree. Anyone can just show up with a camcorder. It is the ultimate in hackery – for which I am perfectly suited.”
Mark McKinnon, veteran political consultant and media adviser to the 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush presidential campaigns.
This Date in American Political History:
1944 – FDR nominated for 4th term at Democratic National Convention.
1969 – First men to walk on the moon, Apollo 11 crew members Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
