INSIDE WASHINGTON: Republican support for Bush Administration’s Iraq policy is fading almost as quickly as John McCain’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

Heading for the exits. The drip, drip, drip of leaking GOP support for the war in Iraq has turned into a steady stream almost overnight. For a growing number of Republican moderates in the U.S. Senate, the credits are rolling on the Iraq war. That movie is over. Caught between surging public opinion polls that want troops home now and the looming 2008 election year, these Senators are sending the Bush Administration every possible signal that things have changed and they should no longer expect the besieged lawmakers to carry the Administration’s water on the unpopular war.
What happened? Caution is the norm in the upper echelons of American politics. Those most successful at this art form know how to surf the waves of public opinion, never getting too far out in front, lest they crash all alone, and knowing instinctively when the big waves are just about to crest. In addition, the best surfers keep their eyes on the old pros. They’ve surfed these waves many, many times before.
When six-term Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar (R) came to the Senate floor a few weeks back to deliver a message that it was time for the Administration to change course in Iraq, he gave cover to every Republican Senator who was already disillusioned over the war. Within days six-term New Mexico Sen. Pete Domenici and five-term Virginia Sen. John Warner echoed Lugar’s stance. These are solid figures in the GOP Senate establishment. That Senators of their stature are drifting away from the White House dramatically undercuts the Administration’s ability to corral wavering younger Senators back into line.
In the last two, at least seven other GOP Senators in addition to Lugar, Domenici and Warner, have gone on the record demanding a change of course on the war. These include Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander, New Hampshire’s Judd Gregg, Maine’s Olympia Snowe, Ohio’s George Voinovich, Oregon’s Gordon Smith, Minnesota’s Norm Coleman, and Nebraska’s Chuck Hagel. Smith and Hagel have long opposed the war and are now actually co-signers to the latest Democratic Senate bill calling for a speedy withdrawal and redeployment of forces. (It’s also worth noting that of these 10 GOP Senators who have signaled their various degrees of opposition to the current war policy, eight are up for reelection next year.)
In a profession where words are the coin of the realm, those spoken by long-time office holders are often given more weight. Couple this political truth with the modern tradition of having an incongruous figure break a policy impasse (i.e., it had to be the life-long, anti-communist Nixon who went to normalize relations with China) and we begin to understand why chances of changing Iraq policy rest more deeply within the Senate’s GOP minority than in its Democratic majority.

Follow the Money. Why is Arizona Sen. John McCain’s second quest for the White House imploding? Let us count the ways.
First, McCain has spent the last six months staking out two policy positions – his support for the war in Iraq and for immigration reform legislation – that put him at odds with big majorities of voters. His staged walk through the Baghdad marketplace this past spring surrounded by 100 armed troops and supported by two helicopter gun-ships changed no public opinions about the war, but certainly hardened a few.
Second, he has never overcome the stigma among the hard core GOP base that he is not one of them – symbolized by his co-sponsorship of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill and what they viewed as his temerity to challenge Texas Gov. George Bush for the 2000 GOP nomination.
Third, in this post-modern era of national GOP politics, being the “next in line” for your party’s presidential nomination no longer matters. See Bob Dole’s 1996 experience.
Fourth, the media attention that gave his 2000 campaign such a boost is nowhere to be seen.
Fifth, the whole atmosphere of the 2008 contest makes it a “time for a change” race. McCain’s age stands in stark contrast to several of his GOP opponents —even more so when one thinks of the remote possibility of a McCain vs. Obama general election.
Finally, the bottom line: Championing unpopular policy positions plus floundering in the polls equals no one wanting to cut your campaign a check. Get your arms around the fact that Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s campaign now has more cash on hand than the McCain camp. The question among GOP insiders now is just how long the Straight-Talk Express can continue to run on fumes.

Political Observations of the Week:

“Every campaign has ups and downs…I am very happy with where the campaign is.”
Sen. John McCain (R., Arizona) speaking to reporters in the wake of a major upheaval in his presidential campaign, which lost its campaign manager, senior adviser, political director, deputy campaign manager, and finance director.

“It feels at times that somebody has put a voodoo curse on us.”
Anonymous McCain campaign insider.

“People in states won’t give money to candidates that are opposing such a key component of their core beliefs – no matter what his record on other issues may be. To blame McCain’s problems on spending is a cop-out – and a denial of the obvious.”
Chris LaCivita, veteran GOP strategist, suggesting that McCain’s support for the unpopular immigration reform bill hurt his ability to raise campaign funds.

“This is about as close to terminal as you can get without actually dying. In medical terms they would say his campaign is in grave condition. The last rights are being uttered.”
Alex Vogel, veteran GOP strategist, on the state of the McCain campaign.

“Essentially, being a senator for 34 years is the definition of a misspent adulthood.”
Sen. Joe Biden (D., Delaware), campaigning for president in Iowa.

“When John Cornyn defects from the president, you know the president’s mojo is completely gone.”
Calvin Jillson, political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Texas, noting how Texas GOP Sen. Cornyn opposed the president on the immigration debate.

This Date in American Political History:

1787 – U.S. Congress establishes Northwest Territory.
1960 – Democratic National Convention nominates Sen. John F. Kennedy for president.

John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.