Immigration bill still faces challenges in the Senate and an even more difficult road in the House.
Immigration battle has such a long way to go. With at least 26 amendments to be considered this week, the Immigration Reform bill may look like a different bill by the time the final Senate vote rolls around. But while the bill’s Senate fate remains unclear, there are telling signs that the House battle will be much more difficult for the legislation’s supporters.
First, House Republicans this week passed an internal House GOP resolution that formally positions the GOP caucus as opposed to the legislation.
Second, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has reportedly told the White House that she wants the President to personally guarantee that there will be at least 70 House GOP votes in favor of the bill before she will even bring the legislation to the floor.
New Nevada poll suggests impact of Fred Thompson. With its January 19 caucuses next year, Nevada will be an early indicator of the candidates’ western appeal. And with six months to go, the latest polling news out of the state suggests former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson (R) will have an immediate impact on the GOP field once he formally enters the fray.
The latest Mason-Dixon poll of the state finds Thompson leading the Republican presidential field with 25 percent of the vote, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20 percent, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 percent, and Arizona Sen. John McCain coming in with 8 percent.
On the Democratic side it’s New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in a strong lead with 39 percent, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in second place with 17 percent, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in third place with 12 percent, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 7 percent.
Not waiting for September. At least two GOP Senators went on the record this week calling on the Bush Administration to change its approach to the war in Iraq. Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar delivered a Monday night floor speech arguing that a military victory is no longer possible. The following day, Ohio Sen. George Voinovich called on the White House to begin planning for the gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Senate races could favor Democrats. Veteran political analyst Stu Rothenberg’s early handicapping of next year’s Senate races shows that the three seats presently ranked as vulnerable to a take-over are all GOP seats – Norm Coleman’s seat in Minnesota, Susan Collins’ seat in Maine and the open seat in Colorado being vacated by retiring Sen. Wayne Allard.
Popular Democratic Rep. Mark Udall is favored to win the Colorado seat while Democratic Rep. Tom Allen will take on Collins in Maine and wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi is well positioned to challenge Coleman in Minnesota.
Rothenberg also broke the news that former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey is interested in making a return to the U.S. Senate. If GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel does not seek reelection next year (and most Nebraska insiders think he won’t) Kerrey is reportedly ready to make the race.
And there are further signs that Virginia GOP Sen. John Warner may be getting ready to announce his retirement this fall. Warner reportedly would like to see Rep. Tom Davis of northern Virginia replace him in the Senate. If Warner retires, word is that popular former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner (no relation) will be in the race for the open seat.
Political Observations of the Week:
“I haven’t seen a lot of Lazaruses coming out of the Senate.”
Rep. Dennis Hastert (R., Illinois), former Speaker of the House, doubting the fate of the Immigration Reform bill.
“If he gets it into the House, a Democrat is going to win the presidency, because they have the votes pure and simple.”
Former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), on the possibility that a serious Independent candidate for president next year could so fracture the vote that no one candidate achieves a majority in the Electoral College, throwing the contest to the House to decide.
This Date in American Political History:
1940 – U.S. Congress passes Alien Registration Act, requiring all aliens to register with the government.
1964 – Civil Rights Act of 1964 passed after an 83-day filibuster in the U.S. Senate.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
