INSIDE WASHINGTON: Collapse of immigration reform bill underscores Bush’s political weakness and limited options for building his legacy before his term ends.

The Immigration Debacle. With the outlook for the massive immigration reform bill already looking uncertain at the start of this week, one Washington wag suggested that after three attempts in recent years, the subject should become a permanent part of the early-summer Congressional calendar – “It’s May, time to try and fail again on immigration reform.”
Now that the bill has been pulled from the Senate schedule, the chances for it to come up again this year are pretty slim. And the House isn’t planning to go anywhere near the subject until the Senate has had its vote, which pretty much puts everything in limbo.
What’s the bottom line? Opponents are relieved but not happy. This means there will be no action this year on their top priority – border security. Proponents are greatly disappointed that what looked like their last, best chance to pass reform legislation before the 2008 election year has evaporated.
Most importantly, the whole episode begs the question of why the President didn’t go all out working the phones and twisting GOP arms. After all, this was his big chance to score a huge win on his domestic agenda in the midst of such widespread despair over the war in Iraq. The short answer of course is that he just didn’t have the political capital necessary to get the job done. As has been so apparent in the recent GOP presidential debates, the president’s party is running away from him or, at best, trying to ignore him. Given these dismal results on immigration, one wonders where the White House will turn next in its attempt to bolster Bush’s domestic agenda legacy with just a little over 18 months left on this administration’s watch.

2008 Presidential Sweepstakes Round-u.
Fred Thompson: He’ll be sure to eat up lots of media coverage this summer as the new face on the GOP scene. Already draining money and talent from other contenders, Thompson will have lots of buzz. However, he will also have to contend with the issue of his years as a Washington lobbyist and his roster of clients. Some political reporters are already digging there.
Newt Gingrich: With Thompson in the race, the former House Speaker is sounding more and more like someone who will not be. He’s now giving himself “4 to 1 odds” against entering the contest
The latest round of debates: All you need to know in a nutshell – on the Democratic side, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards proves he is still in the top tier and is more than willing to mix it up with Sens. Clinton and Obama.
On the GOP side, Arizona Sen. John McCain may be down but don’t count him out just yet. In this week’s debate in New Hampshire he was fast on his feet and delivered a number of memorable points on immigration and the war, the two unpopular issues he has chosen to champion. It may be that imagery of McCain as “the loneliness of the long-distance runner” that set him apart from the pack.
Ames Straw Poll: Both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are now out of the August 11 GOP straw poll in Iowa, and the Iowa GOP is not happy about this. The last time a Republican presidential contender skipped the straw poll and went on to win the Iowa caucus the following year was in the 1970s.

The only poll that matters? Veteran political reporter Mark Shields points out that in the last 14 presidential elections, the GOP nominee has been the leader of the Gallup poll taken a year before the Republican National Convention. On the Democratic side, the eventual nominee was someone who was well behind in the same poll.
Next year’s GOP convention is scheduled for September 4 in St. Paul, Minnesota. So keep that factoid in mind when the Gallup poll comes out in late August or early September of this year. It may prove telling.

Political Observations of the Week:

“But if you think about it, what politician isn’t an actor?”
Former Connecticut GOP Sen. Lowell Weicker, on Fred Thompson.

“Are we men or are we mice? If we can’t do this, we ought to vote to dissolve the Congress and go home until the next election.”
Sen. Trent Lott (R., Mississippi), on the failure of the Senate to deal with the Immigration reform bill.

This Date in American Political History:

1915 – William Jennings Bryan resigns as Secretary of State.
1982 – President Ronald Reagan addresses joint session of the British Parliament.

John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.