Thompson’s entry in the presidential primary sweepstakes won’t surprise anyone, but it will hurt all the Republican front runners, some (McCain) more than others.
Does the GOP race start over? This week’s announcement that former Tennessee Republican Senator and veteran movie and television actor Fred Thompson will enter the GOP presidential sweepstakes will ripple like a moderate shock wave through the campaigns of the already declared candidates. I say “moderate” because it’s not like this is a total surprise.
So far what we know is that Thompson will file a “testing the waters” committee with the Federal Elections Commission on June 4. Although it is not considered an actual “exploratory committee” by the FEC, this filing will allow Thompson to start formally collecting checks made out to “Fred Thompson for President.” And the early word is that he will pick up in excess of $5 million in a matter of days. That’s because Thompson has already held conference calls with major GOP donors who are collecting checks as you read this.
Next, Thompson will probably make a formal declaration of his candidacy sometime around the July 4th holiday, but not before making appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire during June. In fact, Thompson is scheduled to make a speech next Tuesday night in New Hampshire, just a day after the Monday night GOP debate there on the 4th.
While there will undoubtedly be a big media splash of attention over the next few weeks, insiders still expect him to skip the GOP Ames Straw poll in early August simply because he does not have an organization on the ground in Iowa, something any Ames contender needs in order to drum up the numbers in that popularity contest.
The bottom line question is: Whom does this hurt? So far the early assumption is that while it will hurt all three GOP frontrunners (Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain), it will probably hit McCain hardest. The thinking is that big money party donors who have been inching toward writing a check for McCain are now going to be drawn to Thompson. The reason they weren’t already with McCain is that they just weren’t that excited about him this time around. Now Thompson gives them and others in the party (still longing for someone to bring them all back to Reagan’s “Morning in America”), something to really get excited about.
Finally, the party rank and file will remember that Thompson backed McCain in 2000 and the two have reportedly been on good terms since. But just last week, in his role as an ABC News Radio political analyst, Thompson issued a barbed commentary on the new Immigration bill, saying, “No matter how much lipstick Washington tries to slap onto this legislative pig, it’s not going to win any beauty contests.” McCain is one of bill’s sponsors and it’s largely up to him to carry water for the bill during the GOP debates.
Who’s up? Who’s down? The latest polls from Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, all conducted by American Research Group, show an almost uniform order of things in both party camps.
In Iowa, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack with 31 percent, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 25 percent and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 11 percent. In New Hampshire, it’s Clinton with 34 percent, Edwards with 18 percent and Obama with 15 percent. And in South Carolina, it’s Clinton with 34 percent, Edwards with 31 percent and Obama with 18 percent.
On the GOP side in Iowa, Arizona Sen. John McCain leads with 25 percent to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s 23 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 16 percent. In New Hampshire it’s McCain leading with 30 percent followed by Romney at 23 percent and Giuliani at 21 percent. In South Carolina, McCain leads with 32 percent followed by Giuliani with 23 percent, Fred Thompson with 13 percent and Romney with 10 percent.
2008 Tea Leaves? Every four years campaign strategists, party insiders and political junkies try to look at the off-year gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi for clues about how each party may perform in the coming presidential year. Sometimes they are good predictors and sometimes not. It’s definitely a case of the latter this year when there are just so many unique factors dominating the contests in each state that there is very little chance any of the three will in any way be nationalized or otherwise become a good indicator for 2008. Here’s a quick snapshot of how this year’s contests are shaping up:
• Kentucky: Sure to attract the most attention of the three because embattled incumbent GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher already looks like a good bet to lose to former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D). In the latest poll, conducted by Survey USA for WHAS-TV, Beshear leads Fletcher 62 percent to 34 precent. And in the recent GOP primary, where Fletcher had several challengers, about half of the GOP primary voters voted for someone other than the sitting governor.
• Louisiana: All eyes are on U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal in this state’s first post-Katrina gubernatorial contest. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco is not seeking reelection and Jindal is the early frontrunner. Recent polling shows Jindal with a substantial lead over any other contender. Democrats lost their best hope of keeping the seat when former U.S. Sen. John Breaux passed on the race earlier this year.
• Mississippi: Incumbent GOP Gov. Haley Barbour has a lock on reelection. If Mississippi stays in GOP hands (which it will) and Republicans and Democrats trade control of Kentucky and Louisiana, the ratio of party control of the states will remain as it is today: 28 in Democratic hands, 22 under GOP control.
Political Observations of the Week:
“He is angering people beyond belief to the point that the Republican Party is going to split in two, thanks to him. If this bill passes, the Republicans will not recover from it.”
Paul Weyrich, one of the founding fathers of the modern conservative movement in America, on President Bush and the Immigration bill.
“You hire presidents, at a minimum, to run the country well enough that you don’t have to think about it, and, at a maximum, to draw the country together to meet great challenges you can’t avoid thinking about.”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
This Date in American Political History:
1789 – First U.S. Congress Act becomes law. It concerns the administration of oaths.
1966 – 2,400 people attend the first White House Conference on Civil Rights.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
