Hillary won’t skip Iowa (no surprise there) and Florida has secured its place in the political primary sun.
Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida, Oh My! Amid all the theorizing around the leaked memo from the Hillary Clinton campaign suggesting that she skip the Iowa caucuses next year, there’s one largely overlooked point. After discussing the pluses and minuses of avoiding Iowa all together and concentrating money and manpower on the larger state primaries to follow, the memo’s author, a Deputy Clinton Campaign Manager, suggests that the new Florida presidential primary date of January 29 “may actually end this thing” prior to the big February 5 primary date.
First, let’s all agree that whatever the purpose of the memo or its leak, Hillary Clinton will compete in Iowa. The only presidential contender in modern history to skip the event was her husband, Bill Clinton in 1992, and that was because Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin was running for president that year. Despite lagging in the polls there right now, the New York Senator, who’s already earned the endorsement of still-popular former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and his popular wife, will make every effort in the state.
Now, about Florida. The state legislature and new Gov. Charlie Crist, tired of playing third fiddle every four years with a late presidential primary date, wanted to make a splash this time around, and they’ve done so by moving their state primary date next year to January 29. This comes after the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire primary but before the big February 5 “Tsunami Tuesday” that could see more than a dozen big state primaries all take place on the same day.
While the conventional thinking was that the compressed schedule would yield nominees for both parties by February 6, 2008, some strategists now suggest that any candidate who can win two out of the three of the contests that take place before February 5 can coast into the pseudo national primary with all the momentum necessary to move voters to coalesce around a “winner.”
Politicos in Florida are arguing that the state is a “composite” of the country and that if you can win in Florida, you can win anywhere. Certainly there’s some element of truth to that thinking. After all, the state has proven its political importance as the final battleground of the 2000 race and was, along with Ohio, a defining factor in 2004. Now, by positioning itself at the start of the primary and caucus calendar, Florida will be a huge test for those who have argued for three decades that two small states alone should not define candidate momentum and thus set the tone for the unfolding presidential contest.
And it’s clearer than ever that the states that tried to rush to the head of the class, clumsily screaming, “me too,” to join in the Feb. 5 spectacle, have done just what they were trying to avoid – increasing, rather than decreasing, the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire.
No candidate will be wealthy enough to advertise in all the Feb. 5 television markets. Rather, whoever coasts out of the early contests in first or second place will have the critical momentum to compete on the 5th. With Florida coming on the heals of the first two contests, it will be a major test of who among the front runners has what it takes to conquer a large state. That’s the way political strategists will grade the outcome there and that’s the way pundits will spin the results on the networks.
Thinning the GOP Ranks. Don’t forget that it’s now just 77 days until the GOP Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11. Although the poll is largely an unscientific popularity contest, if history is any guide, it will cull the herd of the nine-candidate-strong GOP 2008 presidential field. Those who fail to finish in one of the top three positions usually do a lot of soul-searching about their chances of positioning themselves better for an Iowa caucus win between then and the following January.
The Outside Edge. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has taken a ton of bad press in recent weeks, with every story about his campaign also mentioning his work at a hedge fund, his $400 haircuts, his charging $55,000 to give a speech about poverty, and now, a long list of dirty laundry on display in Democratic political strategist Bob Shrum’s new book.
However, if there’s one upside for the candidate, it’s that he wasn’t sitting in the Senate this week fretting about how to vote on the Iraq supplemental bill. Instead, he was comfortably outside looking in and castigating all sitting Democratic Senate members (in particular his two top rivals), to vote “no” on giving the President a “blank check” on Iraq. This while Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton refused to say how they would vote.
Considering that the whole subject of Iraq funding will likely come up for a vote again and again between now and January, Edwards will continue to be positioned in at least one catbird seat for the foreseeable future.
Political Observations of the Week:
“I think with John McCain there is no three-second delay.”
GOP consultant Nelson Warfield, on Sen. McCain’s recent shoot-from-the-hip comments.
“This is going to require the serious candidates to spend very, very large amounts of money and time in Florida.”
Merle Black, political scientist at Emory University, on the new Florida primary date.
This Date in American Political History:
1787 – George Washington presides over Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.
1961 – President John F. Kennedy sets the goal of putting a man on the moon by the end of the 1960s.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
