“See you in September” will have an ominous ring for Republican legislators, as the fall becomes the make-or-break deadline for assessing progress in Iraq.
See You in September. Since the start of this year, the war in Iraq and the 2008 presidential race have been firmly in control of every aspect of American politics. With neither going away any time soon, that dynamic is clearly here to stay. But suddenly we find both issues now dependent on what appear to be increasingly capricious and impromptu time lines.
The president began talking about his plan for a troop “surge” back in January. From the start he talked about “the fall” as a time when we would know if the plan was working. Now in recent weeks the GOP Congressional leadership has suddenly united around “September” as the touchstone target upon which everything rests – most importantly their patience. Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) was the first to say that September would tell the story as to where things were going with the war. He was quickly seconded by House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-IL). In the wake of this week’s White House meeting between GOP House moderates and the President, Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL) joined the chorus, saying that the fate of the war rests with the military’s planned report that is due in early September. And Defense Secretary Robert Gates said this week that he’d know in September if the administration could begin a troop withdrawal. He was followed by Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Arlen Specter saying that there “has to be some progress, significant progress to sustain [the war] beyond September.” In short, all involved have now put the word “September” into the national lexicon as the touchstone date by which we’ll know what will happen in Iraq.
The inherent political danger with setting expectations this way is that once September comes, the public at large will expect action of some sort. And remember, in Washington terms, September always follows the August Congressional recess. This year’s Congressional summer recess starts August 6th and runs through the 31st. Barring some development that really turns things around in Iraq, can you imagine what it will be like for GOP House members in marginal districts who return to Washington after being hounded for a month by the folks back home who want the war to end? What of the GOP members who survived November 2006 by only a point or two?
GOP Reps. Heather Wilson in New Mexico, Mike Ferguson in New Jersey, Jon Porter in Nevada, Jean Schmidt in Ohio, Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania, and Deborah Pryce in Ohio each survived 2006 by less than 2 percent of the vote. They, and others, know they are on the Democratic target list for 2008. What do they do once they return to Washington and September finally comes? And meanwhile the Democrats in Congress will have spent all summer continuing their war of attrition against the President over funding the war. How many votes and vetoes will it take for the GOP ranks to begin to shatter come September?
As to the presidential race, probably the most chilling message so far has come not from a candidate but from the Secretary of State from New Hampshire. Commenting on the recent move by Florida to set its presidential primary on January 29th of next year and the expected reshuffling that could bring to an already fluid primary calendar, William Gardner said that moving the New Hampshire primary back to December of this year was “not beyond the realm of possibility.”
As many as 23 states (including California and New York) were already planning to move their presidential primaries to February 5th of next year, creating the “Mother of all Super Tuesdays.” Then Florida makes its surprise move, setting its date on the last Tuesday of January. And now comes word that South Carolina will trump Florida and move its date to earlier in January. This will not sit well with the folks in Iowa and New Hampshire, who guard their traditional first place status as sacrosanct.
The calendar-date arms race is suddenly in motion once again. To what end? Perhaps we’ll know the two major party nominees before February 5th! Then what do they do until the summer conventions when they will formally earn their parties’ nominations? And more important, how do they sustain the interest of the voting public into the fall campaign?
So, while the war and the presidential race are still driving politics, suddenly the calendar is now driving them as well.
Political Observations of the Week:
“The parties have lost control of the [presidential primary] calendar, and not necessarily to the benefit of the American people.”
John Weaver, chief strategist for the McCain for President campaign, on the continuing shakeup of the primary calendar.
“Many people are afraid to tell a President the unvarnished truth. All White House staffs are beholden to the President and often pull punches. A President needs ‘reality therapists’ who tell how things really are.”
Veteran Washington insider Ken Duberstein, who served as Chief of Staff to President Ronald Reagan, on the need for presidents to hear outside advice.
This Date in American Political History:
1962 – President John F. Kennedy dispatches U.S. troops to Thailand.
1989 – President George Bush sends 2,000 U.S. troops to Panama.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
