Polls show Clinton hampered by Iraq, Republican voters unimpressed with their current choices, and President Bush’s approval ratings still stuck in the basement.
While we were distracted….This past week was a great example of how easily 2008 presidential politics can be pushed off the screen in favor of the crisis of the day – whether it be Don Imus and the Rutgers women’s basketball team, the Duke rape case falling apart, or the ongoing question of the paternity of Anna Nicole’s daughter. The last several days presented a media roadblock that even the best politician couldn’t breach. Still, two events are worth noting for what they say about each party’s base as the presidential campaign continues.
First, MoveOn.org held an online presidential forum Tuesday night featuring most of the Democratic contenders. A post-forum online preference poll quizzed participants as to which candidate “can lead the U.S. out of Iraq?”
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama came in first with 28 percent of the vote, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 25 percent. Rep. Dennis Kucinich came in third with 17 percent, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson placed fourth at 12 percent. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton came in fifth with 10.7 percent, with Delaware Sen. Joe Biden at 6 percent and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd at 1 percent bringing up the rear. t 1%.
The war is surely the number one issue with the Move On folks and will continue to be right up to Election Day. And, as a whole, the organization’s members have been pretty unforgiving of Clinton’s initial pro-war vote. So, while you shouldn’t extrapolate too far from this one (non-scientific) survey, it still suggests that Clinton’s stance on the war and her refusal to apologize for her initial vote back in 2003, still hurt her among some of the most activist segments of the party’s base. This forum was a big deal for the organization’s members, fully 89 percent of whom believe Clinton is not the candidate to get the U.S. out of Iraq.
The poll also asked members to vote on which candidate won the forum. Edwards came in first with 25 percent, Richardson second with 21 percent and Obama third with 19 percent. Reporters attending the event suggested that Obama did not perform particularly well that night – worthy of note, because this is not the first time in recent weeks that the press had made this observation about an Obama appearance.
Over on the GOP side, the new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey of Americans’ presidential preferences, conducted April 5 thru 9, presents further evidence that Arizona Sen. John McCain may be losing ground with GOP voters. Asked about their candidate preferences, the GOP subset of respondents picked former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for first place with 29 percent of the vote. Coming in second was still-unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee. Thompson garnered 15 percent of the vote, displacing McCain and sending him to third place with just 12 percent. The responses of a further subset of self-described “religious Republicans” indicate that Thompson is their first choice with 21 percent, followed by 17 percent for Giuliani and just 10 percent for McCain.
The instant buzz around Thompson these last two weeks is strong evidence that GOP primary voters are unhappy with the Republican presidential field as it has shaped up so far and are easily swayed by a new name in the mix.
Party insiders view Thompson’s revelation this week that he suffers from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma as a strong indication that he will go ahead and announce his candidacy within the next two weeks. The reasoning is that he wants to get this news out of the way now, make sure that it doesn’t give his Congressional supporters any second thoughts, and then jump in the contest.
Presidential Numbers Game. The latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll has President Bush’s job-approval rating at 38 percent. According to the newspaper, his approval rating has now stayed below 40 percent for 7 consecutive months, placing the President in the company of three other Presidents whose approval ratings remained that low for this long – Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and Harry Truman.
Political Observations of the Week:
“As long as the war appears not to be doing well, it’s going to hurt Republicans.”
Rep. Peter T. King (R., N.Y.)
“It would be like me saying I’ve been a lifelong golfer because I played putt-putt when I was 9 years old and I rode in a golf cart a couple of times.”
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney claiming to be a “lifelong hunter.”
“Discipline is enforced by fear, and there’s not a lot of people right now afraid of the president, politically afraid. The Joint Chiefs, the Republican leadership, former aides are not worried about political retribution from the White House. They’re a paper tiger.”
Joe Lockhart, former Press Secretary to President Bill Clinton, on the Bush Administration.
“Clinton continues to dominate this race with the size and scope of her organization around the country.”
Veteran GOP strategist Scott Reed, giving a professional’s view of how Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign machine is gearing up.
This Date in American Political History:
1920 – First woman, Helen Hamilton, appointed U.S. Civil Service Commissioner.
1934 – Congress passes Johnson Debt Default Act.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
