The revised primary calendar is designed to reduce the dominance of the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries, but it may have precisely the opposite effect.
The Path to 2008 (Part 4): The Primary Calendar. It’s interesting to note that back on March 16, 1968, New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for President. Yes, for the 1968 presidential election. Just think, had his life not been cut short in June of that year, his may have been a seven-month long run for the White House. Seven months. By today’s standards of round-the-clock politics this is a quaint and unthinkable notion. In fact, a candidate who waited until March 16, 2008 to declare a candidacy for next year’s presidential race would find that not only had the train already left the station, it had already arrived at its destination as well.
By this time next year, we may already be bored with the two major party nominees for president. That’s because it is becoming increasingly likely that by this time next year, there will already be enough convention delegates won in the early round of primaries to safely assume who’ll be nominated officially at the summer party conventions.
What will drive the nomination process at hyper-speed will be the unusually large number of states holding their presidential primaries on Feb. 5, 2008 — the first Tuesday of that month. February 2008, February 5th.
Over the last few presidential election cycles many states have moaned that setting their primary or caucus dates late in the spring of an election year made them irrelevant to the race. By the time their primary date rolled around, the assumed front-runners for the nomination had already been ordained and the voters had largely lost interest in the contest, diminishing the role of these states in “picking” a nominee. This time around, a large number of states have apparently decided to do something about it.
As of today, the list of “Super Tuesday” participants (which continues to grow on a daily basis) could look like this: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada (Democrats only), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. Those states either are already on board for the 5th or look to be headed there. West Virginia may also move its GOP primary to the 5th. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are also seriously debating the move.
Before “Super Tuesday,” candidates will compete in the Iowa caucuses (January 14) and the New Hampshire primary on January 22. South Carolina will hold separate party primaries, with the Democrats going first on January 29, followed by the Republicans on February 2.
The creation of a February 5 “Super Tuesday” next year presents two huge challenges for serious contenders— time and money. With just a few weeks between the Iowa/New Hampshire hurdles and February 5, how can any candidate hope to campaign properly in a media-heavy state such as California? His or her only hope is money and lots of it. Veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio estimates that the cost of television spots alone in as many as 18 mid- to large-size states that could hold February 5 primaries could be as much as $60 million per candidate. That price tag is a big hurdle for every campaign; any opportunity to win some early “buzz” and free media may help carry a contender into that expensive buzz-saw.
See the irony here? By advancing the primary calendar and top-loading the first Tuesday in February, the states have assured that the traditional role played by Iowa and New Hampshire as the early arbiters of presidential candidate preferences is even more important. Candidates will be clawing over each other to win both, take the early spotlight, receive a flood of critical campaign cash in the aftermath, and coast into the February 5 circus with what Bush 41 so eloquently dubbed “the big Mo.”
As veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen once put it, “There are three tickets coming out of Iowa – first class, coach, and standby.” Next year will be no different.
Political Observations of the Week:
“There is some logic to it. On the other hand, it’s very difficult to run for president unless you’re running for president.”
Former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey, on Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel’s postponing his decision to run for president.
“This is going to be a rockier year for the White House because every time there is a perceived mistake, they can fire up an investigation. It puts the White House on the defensive.”
Rep. Tom Davis (R., Virginia), on how having Democrats in control of Congress has changed life for the White House.
“You don’t have to wait for Iowa. You have 850-some delegates just waiting to be wooed.”
Political analyst Rhodes Cook, on Sen. Hillary Clinton’s active campaigning among her party’s “super-delegates.”
“It is not believable to me that we would have two 2006s in a row.”
Rep. Tom Cole (R., Oklahoma), Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, on his party’s chances in 2008.
“It’s the marriages and the girlfriend problem.”
Phyllis Schlafly, founder of Eagle Forum, on the image problems dogging former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s presidential hopes.
This Date in American Political History:
1945 – U.S. defeats Japan at Iwo Jima.
1968 – Sen. Robert F. Kennedy announces his campaign for the presidency.
1978 – U.S. Senate accepts Panama Canal treaty.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
