Congress is back at work and Democrats and President Bush have ambitious domestic agendas. But Iraq and the 2008 presidential race (now under way) will be sucking up most of the air and the air time.
Goodbye to All That. The usually barren Christmas to New Year’s news trough was filled by the 10-day-long focus on the death and burial of President Gerald Ford, a mix of personal tributes and political history lesson that centered around words such as “decency” and “comity,” and phrases such as “putting the country first,” and “mutual respect across the aisle.” It didn’t take long for every commentator to ask assorted guests whether the current players in the White House and the new Congress “might take away some lesson from all this?” Well, in short, the answer is “no.”
While the new Congress goes to work this week and the White house tries its best to show that it is still relevant for the next two years, the Iraq war continues to be the elephant at the garden party. Sure, Democrats want to be first out of the gate with a package of domestic legislation that benefits the middle class and the White House is still talking about cutting taxes and restructuring Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, but overshadowing their every step will be the still unanswered question – “What to do about Iraq?” Until it gets answered in a way that’s acceptable to the majority of the public, the president’s poll numbers will remain in the gutter and the Democrats will have no reason to go to bat for any of his programs, foreign or domestic.
Further complicating things for the White House will be the 2008 presidential race. It has begun and some big Democratic players will be competing for free television time on the nightly news every day from the Senate floor. One can only imagine the competition for camera time between Sens. Biden, Kerry, Obama and Clinton, all trying to score points in that contest.
Also troubling for the administration will be dissent from formerly friendly GOP corners. An informal survey of several veteran political operatives over the holiday season points to this growing consensus among the GOP field operatives in the states — get the war off the table before the fall of 2008 or expect another round of GOP Congressional seats to fall.
While the White House will undoubtedly try to shift the focus to the question of what sort of domestic policy legacy the president can leave behind, the next big hurdle will be his coming speech on Iraq and the expected fallout when he announces a troop surge.
Add it all up and one can find little opportunity for civility to reign once again in Washington.
Welcome to the Working Week. Congress returned to work this week with the new Democratic majorities in control of both chambers, enjoying a 233-202 advantage in the House and the 51-49 ratio in the Senate. Although South Dakota Democratic Senator Tim Johnson remains hospitalized, the present 50-49 ratio allowed the Senate to organize around the Democratic leadership.
In the House, Democrats held to their long-planned decision to devote the first 100 hours of legislative activity in the 110th Congress to a legislative package that includes increasing the federal minimum wage to $7.25 over two years, cutting the interest rate on student loans, and rolling back energy industry subsidies. The clock on those 100 hours begins to tick next Tuesday when the first piece of legislation is introduced.
In the Senate, the early action will revolve around the planned upcoming hearings on Iraq war planning.
President Still Focused on Social Security Reform. In a wide-ranging interview with the Washington Post at the end of December, President Bush reiterated that he would indeed try once again this year to jump-start Social Security Reform. He noted, “I will tell you this: In an issue like this, unless the president tries, nothing is going to happen. Without presidential involvement, nothing will happen. So we have a chance, and I’m going to work it.”
Political Observations of the Week:
“It’s Alice in Wonderland. I’m absolutely opposed to sending any more troops to Iraq. It is folly.”
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R., Nebraska), second-ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“Iraq is still there; it’s always there. Unless it starts getting better, it’s like a 10-pound weight.”
Frank Donatelli, former White House political director for President Reagan, on the war being a “weight” on the presidency.
“There’s a reason why you don’t read any books about the last two years of a two-term president. The last years are focused almost entirely on the upcoming election. By the last year, he’s almost completely irrelevant. It’s gloomy, but it’s realistic.”
Paul Light, Presidential historian, New York University.
This Date in American Political History:
1949 – President Truman delivers his “Fair Deal” speech.
1957 – President Eisenhower asks Congress to send troops to the Middle East.
1972 – President Nixon signs legislation directing NASA to begin work on the space shuttle program.
John J. Kohut is an independent political analyst in Washington, D.C. He has been writing about national politics for the past decade, including stints as an editor at the Cook Political Report and as senior editor at the Rothenberg Political Report.
